REPORT WITH THE RESULTS FROM THE BBN WORKSHOP IN LICHINGA

Lichinga – Mozambique 05/08/2015

Julieta Matediane and Pedro Zorrilla-Miras
30/10/2015

ACES PROJECT: LIVELIHOODS AND LAND USE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE
WP 1 AND WP5
	© University of Edinburgh	

Contents
1.	Introduction
1.1.	Objective of the workshop
1.2.	Workshop participants
1.3.	Output
2.	Session on Causal diagram construction
2.1.	Session on Land use change associated to each intervention
First group
Second group
Third Group

1.	Introduction

The workshops in Lichinga – Niassa province was carried out from 4th to 5th august and we obtained the participatory data necessary to design the structure of the BBN model for Marrupa district and the feedback to finish the scenarios and to translate them into maps. 
The method used followed the “BBN_Workshop_2_Methodology” document. 

1.1.	 Objective of the workshop

•	To collect input from stakeholder to be able to construct a relevant and representative BBN for Marrupa district. 
•	To collect input on how they think interventions can influence land use change. 

1.2.	Output

Three causal diagrams constructed in each working group. They will contain variables and links but not quantitative data. The format of the causal diagram will be one piece of paper (2x3 metres) with variables (written in pieces of paper) and lines connecting them. We will do a picture of each paper at the end of the workshop.
•	A table relating interventions and land use categories indicating the most probable impacts. 
•	An additional desired output from both workshops is to collect the discussions during the workshops, in order to incorporate stakeholder concerns, understandings, and the different views from different stakeholders, etc. 

2.	Session on Causal diagram construction

Fig 1: Charcoal Causal diagram

Commercial agriculture Causal diagram

Fig 2: Commercial agriculture Causal diagram
Subsistence agriculture Causal diagram:

Fig 3: Subsistence agriculture Causal diagram

2.1.	 Session on Land use change associated to each intervention 

Plenary discussion on calibration of interventions on land use change
First group

Table 1. Land use change effects of interventions related to charcoal production - Marrupa district (Niassa province).

Land cover	Initial area occupied in Niassa	Past trend (years)	Alternative income sources	Clean energies	Promotion of associations + Sensitization + Capacity building (training)	Improved kilns	Improved stoves 	Land use planning + Reforestation 	
	2000 (%)	2005 (%)	2000-2005	2035	
Woodlands	57.9	61.6	3.7	-4%	+4%	-2%	-5%	-6%	+3%	
Croplands	1.1	4.5	3.4	+5%	+5%	+5%	+4%	+5%	+3%	
Grasslands	9.6	11.2	1.6	+3%	+3%	+3%	+4%	+3%	+1%	
Shrublands	30.1	22.1	-8	-4%	-1%	-6%	-5%	-6%	+3%	
Villages	1.3	0.6	-0.7	+7%	+7%	+9%	+7%	+7%	+8%	
Total	100	100	-							

Second group

Table 2. Land use change effects of interventions related to commercial agriculture (tobacco) - Marrupa district (Niassa province).
Land cover	Initial area occupied in Niassa	Past trend (year)	Promotion of conservation agriculture	Agro-forestry systems	Forest plantations for firewood	Environmental education	Corporative social responsibility (promotion of food crops)	Land use planning from current zoning	
	2000 (%)	2005 (%)	2000-2005	2035	
Woodlan	57.9	61.6	3.7	-5%	-10%	-2%	-2%	+1%	-2%	
Cropland	1.1	4.5	3.4	+10%	+8%	-2%	+2%	+2%	+2%	
Grassland	9.6	11.2	1.6	+3%	+3%	-2%	+1%	+1%	+1%	
Shrublands	30.1	22.1	-8	-15%	-8%	-8%	-2%	-2%	-10%	
Villages	1.3	0.6	-0.7	+7%	+7%	+1%	+3%	+2%	+5%	
Total	100	100	-							

Third Group
Table 3. Land use change effects of interventions related to subsistence agriculture - Marrupa district (Niassa province)

Land cover	Initial area occupied in Niassa	Past trend (years)	Adaptive plans to climate change	Promotion of conservation agriculture	Land use planning from current zoning	Reforestation	Training on sustainable technologies	Environmental education	
	2000 (%)	2005 (%)	2000-2005	2035	
Woodlands	57.9	61.6	3.7	-2%	No change on trend	No change on trend	+1.5%	+1%	+1%	
Cropland	1.1	4.5	3.4	+4%	+3%	+4%	+1%	+4%	+3%	
Grasslan	9.6	11.2	1.6	-3%	+2%	+3%	+4%	+3%	+4%	
Shrublands	30.1	22.1	-8	+1%	+2%	+3%	+4%	+2%	+4%	
Villages	1.3	0.6	-0.7	+2%	+2%	+4%	+3%	+3%	+3%	
Total	100	100	-