REPORT WITH THE RESULTS FROM THE FIRST SCENARIOS WORKSHOP IN MAPUTO

Maputo, Mozambique 13/08/2014

Pedro Zorrilla-Miras.
30/09/2014

ACES PROJECT: LIVELIHOODS AND LAND USE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE
WP 1 AND WP5
© University of Edinburgh

13th of August
The workshop was attended by 18th participants, coming from different institutions. Public institutions where represented by stakeholders from Maputo as well as from 2 provinces where the project will work (Manica and Niassa). They were from different areas of work: mine, rural development, finance and management, environment, energy, agriculture, forestry, livestock and tourism. There were also representatives from Mozambican Academic institutions (Universidad Eduardo Mondlane, focused on forests), International organizations (interested in environment, forests, tourism and lifestyles) and from National NGOs related to agriculture, environment, forests and lifestyles. 
Concerning the timescale, the participants recommended choosing time spans of 5 years (5 -10 -15 – 20 years) because government planning cycles and political agendas are developed every 5 years and changes in policies can appear at these points of time. A 5 years vision would be more related with laws and political plans, and a 20 years would be more related with future visionary. 
Participants worked in groups focusing on the identification of the main drivers of change affecting rural wellbeing and ecosystem services. The objective was to identify the 2 drivers of change most important and the 2 most uncertain. We did not come to common drivers from the whole group. The 2 most important identified by the national group are common to each of the provincial groups:  Decentralization and more empowerment and participation of the communities, and improve the effective application of the legislation. There was not such a consensus concerning the most uncertain drivers of change. Some of the most interesting could be Effective decentralization (power and human and financial resources), redistribution of wealth, Economic development and Fair prices. 

Table 1. Most important and most uncertain drivers of change detected by participants. 
	Group National	Group Manica	Group Niassa	
2 most important drivers of change	Empowerment of communities in the management of natural resources	Access to extension services 	Decentralization and de-concentration with the participation of the civil society 	
	A) Dissemination of laws and elaboration of land-use plans 
B) Establishment of means for punishment (criminalization of negative environmental impacts) + monitoring of the implementation of projects	Effective application of legislation	Economic growth and development	
2 most uncertain drivers of change	Recreation use of the nature by inhabitants	Fair prices	Effective decentralization	
	Environmental protection	Reduction of gold digging (garimpo) and furtive hunting	Economic development 	

1.	Group Central

The group came to a list of drivers of change:
-	Economy
o	Affordable renewable energy
o	Access to markets
o	Access to credits (promotion of saving groups and credits)
o	Promotion of agricultural markets
o	Value chains
o	Cost-Benefit analyses
o	Promotion of entrepreneurism
-	Politic
o	Dissemination of laws 
o	Environmental protection (development)
o	Introduction of means for punishment for those causing environmental deterioration based on the principle “Polluter pays”
o	Land-use plans
o	Elaboration of local plans for the adaptation and integration of the “PESOD´s”??
o	Financing
o	Establishment of incentives for good agricultural practices
-	Society
o	Community consultation
o	Promotion of associations
o	Empowerment of communities in the management of natural resources 
o	Capacity building (e.g., 20% of licenses do not arrive in most villages because they don´t know how to get and manage it)
o	Recreation
o	Environmental education and awareness rising
o	Promotion of good environmental practices
o	Strengthening of partnerships
-	Technology
o	Alternative energy sources
o	Improved seeds
o	Introduction of innovative technics for higher production
o	Low cost energy systems (solar panels)
o	Promotion of improved stoves
o	Capacity building in communities
o	Propagation of conservation agriculture 
-	Environment
o	Controlled bushfires
o	Land-use plans 
o	Promotion of apiculture ( quality and hygiene has to be increased, market assessment)
o	Promotion of eco-tourism
o	Protection of river margins 
o	Propagation of the creation of “nucleos do ambiente” (environmental groups?)
o	Promotion of the creation of community forest

The two factors selected as most important were:
•	Empowerment of communities in the management of natural resources
•	A) Dissemination of laws and elaboration of land-use plans.
•	B) Establishment of means for punishment + monitoring of the implementation of projects
Notes on the discussion: if laws are getting stronger, probably bad actions are getting less. Besides laws, means for monitoring and punishment are needed. This way, bad practices can be prevented and mitigated. Till now, nobody is made responsible for their action, no punishment. However, effective punishment is only possible with a good monitoring system. 
The two scenarios selected as the most probable:
•	Creation of incentives for good agricultural practice (MINAG)
•	Creation of community forests
•	Ways accessing markets
Others: Access to credits, access roads (a lot of money is invested but most work is not well done), eco-tourism, controlled bushfires, improved seeds, promotion of apiculture.
The two scenarios selected as the most improbable:
•	Recreation (that nature recreation will become an important issue in Mozambique)
•	Environmental protection
Others: value chains, Cost-benefit analyses, alternative energy sources, strengthening of partnerships, environmental education, introduction of innovative production techniques.

2.	Group Manica
The group came to a list of drivers of change (not complete, notes from photos, but there are other more detailed notes that one student wrote down):
-	Economy
o	Increased value of products
o	Prices
o	Access to credits
-	Politic
o	Land policies
o	Social accountability
o	Bad law dissemination
-	Society
o	Conflicts Humans/Animals
o	Access to employment
o	Access to basic social services
o	Small improvement of human rights
o	Cultural customs, habits
-	Technology
o	Small access to extension services
o	Access to inputs
o	Irrigation technics
-	Environment
o	Natural calamities
o	Deforestation
o	Zoning (ordenamento territorial)
o	Poaching
o	Gold digging
The two factors selected as most important are:
•	Application of an effective legislation
•	Access to extension services
To have a better rural extension service is important that they are related with research, the existence of extension networks.  
The two scenarios selected as the most certain:
•	Population growth
•	Increasing access to credits
The two scenarios selected as the most uncertain:
•	Fair prices
•	Reduction of gold digging (garimpo) and furtive hunting

3.	Group Niassa
The group came to a list of drivers of change (not complete, notes from photos, but there are other more detailed notes that one student wrote down):
-	Economy
o	Economic growth and development. SELECTED AS ONE OF THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS. UNCERT (because it is not clear that the economic growing will mean social development).
o	GDP increasing. CERT
o	Economic stability.
o	More wealth redistribution.
o	Increasing the offer of basic products (commodities).
o	Increase the purchase capacity of people.
o	Improvement of infrastructures.
o	Increase the mobility of persons and goods.
o	More business opportunities.
o	Inflation increase. 
-	Politic
o	Democratization of media.
o	Participatory government.
o	Decentralization and de-concentration with the participation of the civil society. SELECTED AS ONE OF THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS.
o	Improvement of sectorial policies??
-	Society
o	More social inclusion.
o	More intervention, compromise and management of public services. 
o	More responsibility of media.
o	More citizenship.
o	More inclusive government.
-	Technology
o	Improvement in the access to technology.
o	Increase of production and productivity.
o	Technological bureaucracy and transference.
o	Faster access to information.
o	Massive use of technology.
-	Environment
o	Forest cover reduction. CERT
o	Increase in the pollution levels.
o	Degradation and fragmentation of natural parks.
o	Animals and plants species extinction.
o	Soils compaction.
o	Degradation of soils and aquifer levels.
o	Increase levels of ….

The two factors selected as most important:
1.	Economic growth and development
2.	Decentralization and de-concentration with the participation of the civil society
The two scenarios selected as the most probable:
1.	Increase of Gross domestic product (GDP)
2.	Reduction of the forest cover
The two scenarios selected as the most uncertain:
1.	Economic development: because grow does not imply development.
2.	Effective decentralization: devolution of responsibilities and financial decisions. 
Other uncertainties were international agreements, the construction of big infrastructures, inflation, and capacity to access services.