REPORT WITH THE RESULTS FROM THE SCENARIOS WORKSHOP IN XAI-XAI

Xai-Xai– Mozambique 14 August, 2014

Julieta Matediane and Pedro Zorrilla-Miras
30/09/2014

ACES PROJECT: LIVELIHOODS AND LAND USE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE
WP 1 AND WP5
	© University of Edinburgh	

14th of August
Most of the participants came from provincial public institutions related to agriculture, forestry, livestock, tourism, and environment. There were also participants from provincial NGOs related with environmental issues, with agriculture and with civil organizations. 
No common drivers of change were identified by the 3 working groups, and there was not more time for coming to a consensus between the whole group. Some of the most interesting drivers could be the improvement of application of the law, more inclusive policies, improvement of agricultural technologies or the importance of non-nature related economy (Table 1). 
Table 1. 
	Group 1	Group 2	Group 3		
2 most important drivers of change	Social conflicts demanding development actions	Improvement of rural technologies	Rural emigration		
	More inclusive political decisions
	Improve environmental policies

Improving rural income	Effective application of legislation		
2 most uncertain drivers of change	Improve of rural technologies

Decreasing groundwater level	Balances of payment (public deficit)

Importation/Exportation	Improve employment opportunities

Erosion increase		
	Economy based on extractive industry	Reforestation

Social protection	Fragility of an effective application of legislation		

Group 1
The group proposed the next list of drivers of change:
IMP: means that one person of the group voted that driver as one of the 3 most important ones. 
UNCERT: means that the group selected that driver us one of the 2 most uncertain ones. 
CERT: means that the group selected that driver us one of the 2 most certain ones.

-	Economy
o	Economy based on extractive industries. IMP UNCERT
o	Increasing hydraulic infrastructures. IMP
o	Increasing purchase capacity. IMP
o	High unemployment rates. ½ IMP
o	Weak small and medium companies, little power and wealth.
o	Less integrated and less equalitarian economy.
o	Increasing IDE.
o	Ponto e areoponto + emprego.
o	Increasing entrepreneurship.
o	Change in the importance of economic sectors.
o	Increasing international investments
o	Net systems that will contribute to balance of payments
o	Will appear new economic services, value chain will grow.  

-	Policy
o	More inclusive political decisions. SELECTED AS ONE OF THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS
o	Increasing political decentralization. IMP  ½IMP ½IMP 
o	More political involvement from the society. ½IMP
o	Formulation of policies for the reallocation of wealth.
o	Resistance of governing people against pressure from civil society.
o	Influence of the general public for political changes.

-	Social:
o	Social conflicts demanding development actions (more social protests claiming necessities: drinking water, more public services, protection dikes, etc). SELECTED AS ONE OF THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS. This would be the driver of change to come to a “More inclusive political decisions” (selected also as one of the 2 most important factors).Social conflicts and pressure from society is needed to push the government to more social and inclusieve policies. 
o	Diminish of land and other natural resources (because of different causes, for example external investors). IMP IMP IMP CERT
o	Increasing social conflicts. ½IMP ½IMP
o	Increasing cultural changes. ½IMP
o	Civil society more robust and hustling on politicians/policies.
o	More crimes.
o	More access to basic social services.
o	HIV/SIDA controlled.
o	Society more active in the political decision making. More participation of people in forums for decision making. 
o	Increasing religious beliefs by people
o	Increasing social debates

-	Technology
o	Increasing technological development and technology use by people. IMP UNCERT 
o	Increasing technology research and development. ½IMP ½IMP ½IMP ½IMP
o	Increasing agricultural mechanization. ½ IMP
o	Increasing industrialization.
o	Increasing access to mobile phones.

-	Nature: 
o	Increasing ecosystems destruction. IMP IMP CERT
o	Natural disasters. IMP
o	Lowing groundwater levels. UNCERT
o	Increasing pollution.
o	Increasing extreme natural events (droughts and floods).
o	Risk of animal and plants species extinction.
o	Diminish conflicts between animals and humans.
o	Increasing pressure on land and natural resources

Oral recording: WS760068. Minutes 33-49. 

Group 2

-	Economy
o	Increasing of employment opportunities. UNCERT
o	Increasing of family incomes. IMP
o	Increasing of investors. CERT
o	Increasing of (recoltas??) fiscals. ½ IMP
o	Increasing of global GDP.
o	Increasing of state (divida??).
o	Low inflation rates.

-	Policy
o	Weak policy implementation. IMP, ½IMP, ½IMP, UNCERTAINTY
o	Simplification of administrative procedures (reducing bureaucracy).
o	Freedom of expression.
o	Strengthen policy implementation.
o	Solidification of policies.
o	A del-rar human rights.

-	Social:
o	Rural exodus (emigration) SELECTED AS ONE OF THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS
o	Increasing criminality ½ IMP
o	Increasing unemployment
o	Increasing social conflicts
o	Increasing of polygamy
o	Increasing social vulnerability
o	Increasing index of HIS/SIDA

-	Technology
o	Improving technical capacity. IMP
o	Increasing access to technologies. IMP
o	Increasing the mechanization of agricultural production. ½ IMP
o	Smallness of computerized personal.

-	Nature: 
o	Increasing the pressure from extraction industries. IMP, CERT
o	Increasing soil erosion. ½IMP, UNCERT
o	Decreasing forest coverage. IMP
o	Impoverishment of soils. IMP
o	Decreasing of rainfall.

Group 3

-	Economy
o	Increase of incomes. IMP, IMP. SELECTED AS ONE OF THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS
o	Import/Export resources. UNCERT
o	balance of payments (public deficit). UNCERT
o	PIB increase. IMP
o	Rural credit. ½ IMP

-	Policy
o	Strengthen policies on natural resources. IMP. SELECTED AS ONE OF THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS
o	Social protection. UNCERT
o	Strengthen quality policies (INNOR). IMP
o	Improvement of access to credit policies. ½ IMP
o	Renewable energies.

-	Social:
o	Increasing of unemployment. ½ IMP, ½ IMP, CERT
o	Increasing pressure over social services. ½ IMP, CERT
o	Increasing criminality. ½ IMP, ½ IMP
o	Demographic explosion. ½ IMP 
o	Social vulnerability.

-	Technology
o	Improved technologies. IMP, IMP. SELECTED AS ONE OF THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS
o	Increasing agricultural production. 
o	Emergence of more value chains.
o	Products processing. IMP

-	Nature: 
o	Greenhouse effect. UNCERT
o	Increasing pressure on natural resources. CERT
o	Animal restocking.
o	Reforestation.
o	Ecological imbalance.