REPORT WITH THE RESULTS FROM THE SECOND SCENARIOS WORKSHOP IN MAPUTO

Maputo – Mozambique 12 August, 2015

Julieta Matediane and Pedro Zorrilla-Miras
October 2015

ACES PROJECT: LIVELIHOODS AND LAND USE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE
WP 1 AND WP5
	© University of Edinburgh	

Contents
•	1st Session: Scenario refining
•	2nd Session: Effect of scenarios on land uses changes
•	Plenary discussion on the effect of land uses change in the scenarios
•	3rd Session: Scenarios implications
•	4th Session: Interventions

•	1st Session: Scenario refining

Plenary discussions on the scenario refining are included before the resulting tables.
1. Comparative analyse of society between the three story lines
The group that was analysing society referred the need for more explanation regarding the population factor – if it was referring to rural or urban population. It was referred in the plenary the need of more abstraction from the group to understand the current situation of the country. There perspective may be different at different levels (national, provincial or local). The natural tendency of migration from rural to urban areas will continue. The group added gender and additional factor. The policy environment of scenario A stimulates enterprises to all social classes and contributes to less degradation of social values. The scenario C encourages all social classes.
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Population	Population increase considerably
The groups need more details 	Population increase slightly. √	Population increase slightly. √	
Rural and urban migration 	The migration from the rural to urban zones is high. √	The rate rural and urban population is stable. √ 	The migration from urban to rural areas increase

Prevalence of the natural tendency of migration from rural to urban areas	
Social Service	Decrease of the social services. √	Social services qualified and effective 
Social services more qualified and effective	Good social services in some districts rather than others √	
Civil society role 	Decrease the influence of national civil society organizations. √	Civil society organisations give voice to the communities. √	Civil society organizations are effective as well as the big international private companies 

Civil society organisations give voice to the community  in some districts	
livelihood	Many families do not improve their livelihood; 
Vulnerability and social exclusion risk increase	Marked improvement of the livelihood in rural zones. √	Some rural communities improve their livelihood. √	
Add a new issue: Gender and age	Deficient impact between men and women favouring men;
Use of labour considering age and experience;
Youth – doing physical labour;
The most experienced doing qualified work
Degradation of socio cultural values	the political environment encourage the entrepreneurship for men, women and youth
less degradation of sociocultural values	More variable situation depending on the district	

2. Comparative analyse of Environment between the three story lines
There will be significates changes in biodiversity, caused by existing mechanisms that can take to biodiversity losses. Climate change adaptation will be improved by legal instruments and mechanisms that promote adaptation. For the scenario B the group proposed the consideration of mitigation and not only adaptation. A significant increase of protected areas and forest management was proposed for the scenario C. In the scenario A, the timber exploitation will be one of the drivers of land use change compounded by the massification of improved technologies to increase the productivity. The need for large scale investments will threat the land tenure the traditional land tenure although it is recognized by the law.
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Biodiversity	Biodiversity conservation with low priority. √ 
But there is political instruments and new incentives that can reduce this trends 	The conservation of biodiversity is a priority for the government at national, provincial and district levels. √	The biodiversity conservation is a priority leaded by the international organization

The biodiversity conservation is a priority leaded by international and national organization	
Adaptation to climate change	The mitigation and adaptation to climate change is more proactive then reactive. √	The adaptation to climate change is more consistent.

Adaptation will be a priority but the mitigation will also be considered 	Implementation of strategies for climate change adaptation 
Implementation of strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation	
Protected areas	Few protected areas most of them looking to ecotourism. √	Several wildlife protected areas. √	Slightly increase of the protected areas
Increase of the protected areas 	
Forest Management	Intensification of forest plantation. √	The sustainable management of forest is a priority. √	Promotion of sustainable management of forest. √	
Land use change	Big projects of agrarian production and increase on charcoal production √

+ logging 	Small-scale farming initiatives. 

Massify the knowledge and use of improved technologies in small-scale agriculture practices 	Expansion of small, medium and large scale enterprise. √

+ Massify the use of sustainable technologies 	
Add new issue:
•	Land tenure security;
•	Land degradation;
•	Water (quantity and quality) 				

3. Comparative analyse of economy between the three story lines
The attribution of large private concession will continue being a problem caused by the lack of zoning and the communities dispersed inside the forests. The agrarian credits will be increased for the small-scale producers and limited for the commercial producers. The discrepancy between poor and rich will be reduced. The actual criterion of taxes relief applied to the large investments is not applied to the small ones.
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Industrial growth	Substantial increase in industrial investment. √	Slightly industrial growth. √	Strong industrial investment. √	
Concessions	Increase on the long-term concessions. 	 Low concessions. 	Increase of concessions, bur limited by civil society. √	
Fees and taxes 	Low state revenues, √ 	Increase of the state revenues. √	Significant increase on the base tax. √	
Agrarian credits	The small farmers continue with difficult to have access to credits. √	High access to credits to small farmers. √	Increased access to credits for the large- scale enterprise and limited for the small scale enterprise.

Increased access for the small enterprise and limited for the large scale enterprise 	
employment	Job opportunities surrounding the big investments. √
	Diversified job opportunities in rural zones. √	Substantial increase of job opportunities9. √	
Redistribution of wealth	Discrepancy between reaches and poor increase. √	Many rural communities improve their livelihood. √	Balance between scenario A and B 

Improve the discrepancy between reaches and poor. 	
Add new issue:				

 

•	
•	2nd Session: Effect of scenarios on land uses changes 

Characteristics of land use change in the storylines – Mozambique
2035: Characteristics of the land use change storylines: Scenario A	
Land Cover categories	Currently occupied area 	Land use change to 	Main drivers of changes	Regulation Mechanisms 	
	(ha)	%				
Forest	41,889,728 	29%	Decrease 20%	Concessions:
Forest;
Agriculture;
Mining	Sectorial policies and legislations;
Suitable technologies;
Zoning	
Open forest	30,663,407 	21%	Decrease 15%
	Wood – simple licences;
Biomass energy ;
Mining concessions 	appropriate and sustainable technologies for alternative energy production;
	
Shrublands 	17,446,300 	12%	Decrease 6 %	Concessions
Forest plantation,
Pastures
Mining
Biomass energy	Sectoral Policies and legislations;
Zoning	
Grass lands 	14,684,820 	10%	Constant 10%	New pastures areas;
Pasture cultivation;
Concessions (forest, agriculture and mining)	Sectoral Policies and legislations;
Zoning	
Agriculture	16,763,125 	11%	Increase 22%	Large concessions
Mono-cropping 	Sectoral Policies and legislations;
Zoning
Appropriate technologies 	
Shifting cultivation + forest 	12,227,058 	8%	Decrease 3%	New fertile areas
Biomass energy	Appropriate agriculture technologies;
Extension services	
Wetlands + water bodies 	   9,358,562 	6%	Decrease 3%	Irrigation
Silting
Mining Concession	Environmental Impact Assessment and control;
Appropriate technologies;
Zoning;
Sectoral Policies and legislations	
Settlements 	  1,862,299 	1%	Increase 10%	Human settlements;
Migration from rural to urban areas	Land use planning;
Appropriate technologies;
Zoning;
Sectoral Policies and legislations	
Others: forest plantation	1,939,378	1%	Increase 11%	Food, paper pulp;
Electrification;
Construction;
Energy;
Construction material;
Mining concession	Conservation policy;
Zoning;
Sectoral Policies and legislations;
Appropriate technologies;	

Characteristics of land use change in the storylines – Mozambique
2035: Characteristics of the land use change storylines: Scenario C	
Land Cover categories	Currently occupied area 	Land use change to 	Regulation Mechanisms 	Main drivers of changes	
	(ha)	%				
Forest	41,889,728 	29%	Decrease 22%	Zoning
Land use planning	Commercial agriculture;
Forest exploitation;	
Open forest	30,663,407 	21%	Decrease 12%	EIA	Forest plantation;
Commercial Agriculture;
Biomass Energy	
Shrublands 	17,446,300 	12%	Decrease 9%	Land use planning;	Housing;
pastures	
Grass lands 	14,684,820 	10%	Increase 12%	Zoning	Deforestation 	
Agriculture	16,763,125 	11%	Increase 16%	Lack of the national land use planning;	Deforestation;
Reduction of soil productivity;	
Shifting cultivation + forest 	12,227,058 	8%	Increase 11%	Conservation Agriculture	Deforestation;
Reduction of soil productivity	
Wetlands + water bodies 	   9,358,562 	6%	Decrease 4%	Environmental protection	Climate change;
River silting;
Marginal forests pressing;	
Settlements 	  1,862,299 	1%	Increase 8%	Land use planning	Population increase;
Increase of infrastructure;
	
Others: forest plantation	1,939,378	1%				

•	Plenary discussion on the effect of land uses change in the scenarios

Land Use change characteristics in the scenarios
Although the plenary agreed that the shifting cultivation areas will reduce due the increase of population and the increase on the demand for land for large investments, the proposed % of reduction is ambitious according to the reality. The reduction of forest areas in 20% due the demand for new mining concession, the reduction of shrubland may be caused by the increase of forest plantations. There will not be much variation regarding the grasslands and the increase of grassland and agricultural area will depend on the zoning. The water bodies will reduce due the supply to irrigation systems. The human settlements will increase due the large scale investments, e. g. SAZOL, Mozal. The forest plantation will increase as result of intensive work with communities and their awareness on the need of conservation.
For the scenario B the group proposed a reduction in 7% of forest. The commercial agriculture will be enhanced by this scenario, but there is a need of a land use change plan.
In the scenario C the group proposed that the closed forest category may reduce to 22 %, due the pressing on the natural resources, agriculture practices and increase on land demand. This tendency will be regulated by the implementation of the forest and wildlife law, biodiversity and conservation strategies. The shrublands area may increase in 20 % due the communities needs to increase their food production by increasing livestock. The commercial agriculture areas may increase by 3% considering the currently land demand for agriculture. While the shifting cultivation may reduce by 5% caused by the massification of knowledge. The water bodies will reduce by 4% and the human settlements will increase by 2% due the population increase. The group considered the mining areas as other categories of land cover they suggested that the increase will be in 3 % rather the 1% as stated.
Changes proposed in the tables after the plenary discussion on the effect of land uses change in the scenarios

Scenario of land use change in the rural zones of Mozambique 2035	
Themes 	Scenario A	Scenario B	Scenario C	
Effects of the scenario in the land use change 	Farm land
Forest
Urban areas
Mining 
Protected areas
Livestock ( pastures)	Increase √
Reduce √
Increase √
Increase √
Reduce
Reduce √	Increase slightly √
Increase slightly decrease slightly 
Constant Increase (due population and investment increase)
Constant Increase Slightly
Constant Increase  Slightly
Increase slightly 
	Increase slightly /increase
Reduce √
Increase slightly / Increase
Increase slightly / Increase
Constant/ Increase
Increase slightly / Increase
	
Availability of ecosystem services  	Charcoal
firewood
Biodiversity 
conservation
Soil fertility 
Water
wood
NTFP
Food crops
export crops 	Reduce √
Reduce √
Reduce √
Reduce /it will depend on the techniques and alternatives of production
Reduce √
Reduce √
Reduce √
Constant / it will depend on the investments
Increase √	Increase /Reduce Slightly
Increase /Reduce Slightly
Increase/ increase slightly 
Increase/ depends …
Increase/depends on the levels of forest cover
Reduce √
Reduce √
Increase √
Constant /  increase slightly 
	Constant/ Reduce
Constant / Reduce 
Constant √
Constant √
Constant √
Reduce Slightly/ Reduce 
Reduce Slightly/ Reduce
Increase slightly √
Increase slightly / increase
	
Rural wellbeing 	Income
Employment 
Basic social services (health and education)
Access to market 
Roads and infrastructures
Communication and technology 	Constant/ increase (more demand of commercial products)
Constant / increase even indirectly 
Constant / Human settlements regulation and  RESA policy ) 
Constant/ increase
Constant/ increase
Constant / increase. effect caused by investment	Increase 
Increase 
Increase 
Increase 
Increase 
Increase 

+/- Effect caused by government 	Increase slightly / Increase
Increase slightly / Increase
Increase slightly / Increase
Increase slightly / Increase
Increase slightly / Increase
Increase slightly / Increase

Combined effect of government and investors 	

•	3rd Session: Scenarios implications

	Scenario implications of Scenario A in 2035 	
Issues	Positive effects 	Negative effects 	
Technology	•	Reduction if productive period
•	Increase income;
•	Increase of the production and productivity 	•	Access to technologies and market information;
•	Labour demission in mass due the improvement of technologies 	
Society 	•	Improvement of the livelihood of the communities (Access to public services );
•	Equality and respect in the decision making power;
•	Human settlements with basic social services facilities
•	Gender equity;
•	Increase the employment opportunities;	•	Social values loss of society;
•	Social exclusion;
•	Risk of fragility of local power;	
Political	•	Sustainable management;
•	Social inclusion 	•	Corruption;
•	Risk of social instability;
•	Inappropriate policies;
•	Fragility of the traditional authorities.	
Economy 	•	Increase of qualified labour improve of human capital
•	Increase the contribution of taxes in the PIB	•	Marked discrepancy between wealth classes;
•	Low household income;
•	Disproportion in the geographic development;
•	Unfair competition	
Environmental/ land use 	•	Zoning in the land allocation and use;
•	Use of technologies environmentally accepted 	•	Land/environment  pollution;
•	Reduction of biodiversity;
•	Occupancy of large extension of land bring the land conflict;
•	Risk of land grabbing;
•	Sub utilization of land;
•	Deforestation, and degradation of ecosystems and land;
•	Discrepancy in the negotiation capacity;	

	Scenario implications of Scenario B in 2035 	
Issues	Positive effects 	Negative effects 	
Technology	•	Improvement of tertiary roads;
•	Small farmers benefits from extension services	•	Poor adherence to the new technologies  	
Society 	•		•		
Political	•		•		
Economy 	•	Investment in the small and medium companies;
•	More access to credite to the small farmers;
•	Diversify of job opportunities in the rural areas	•		
Environmental/ land use 	•		•	Reduction of forest cover;
•	Population growth	

	

•	4th Session: Interventions
	Intervention to mitigate the effect of the narrative of Scenario A in 2035 	
Issues	Interventions for the Positive impacts 	Interventions for the Negative impacts 	
Technology	•	Production of organic compost;
•	Monitoring the impact of technologies	•	Massify the use of technologies;
•	Technologies of easy adoption by the local communities;	
Society 	•	Community awareness raising 	•	Investment and maximize the access to the basic social services;
•	Strength the civil society prominence  	
Political	•		•	Design policies adequate to the real situation;
•	control of the accomplice of the law,	
Economy 	•	recycling of solid waste;
•		•	Fair competition policies;
•	Market protection;	
Environmental/ land use 	•	Updating  the land use mapping	•	Control of land use;
•	Management of solid waste;	

	Intervention to mitigate the effect of the narrative of Scenario B in 2035 	
Issues	Interventions for the Positive impacts 	Interventions for the Negative impacts 	
Technology	•	More investments in the roads infrastructures and extension services (state, ONGs and private sector)	•	Training, divulgation, change of experience between communities;	
Society 	•		•		
Political	•		•		
Economy 	•	More financing to the small-scale companies	•		
Environmental/ land use 	•		•	REDD+;
•	Family planning