REPORT WITH THE RESULTS FROM THE SCENARIOS WORKSHOP IN LICHINGA

Lichinga – Mozambique 4th August 2015

Julieta Matediane and Pedro Zorrilla-Miras
October 2015

ACES PROJECT: LIVELIHOODS AND LAND USE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE
WP 1 AND WP5
	© University of Edinburgh	

Contents
1.	Introduction
1.1.	Objective of the workshop
1.2.	Workshop participants
1.3.	Output
2.	Findings
2.1.	Session on Scenarios refinement
2.1.1.	Comparative analysis of Society between the scenarios
2.1.2.	Comparative analysis of environment between three scenarios
2.1.3.	Comparative analysis of economy between the three scenarios
2.1.4.	Comparative analysis of technology between three scenarios
2.1.5.	Comparative analysis of policy between three scenarios
2.2.	Session on Effect of each scenario on land use change
2.2.1.	First 3 groups. Tables with percentage of change, drivers and mechanisms.
2.2.2.	Second 3 groups.  Proposal of the evolution of land use changes, ecosystem services availability and rural wellbeing.
2.3.	Session on Effect of different spatial data on scenarios of land use change in rural Mozambique in 2035

1.	Introduction

The workshops in Lichinga – Niassa province was carried out from 4th to 5th august and we obtained the participatory data necessary to design the structure of the BBN model for Marrupa district and the feedback to finish the scenarios and to translate them into maps. 

1.1.	 Objective of the workshop
Scenarios of future land use change in rural Mozambique: 
•	To evaluate the proposed scenarios constructed with the input from previous workshops. 
•	 Get input to construct definitive scenarios of the future. 
•	Collect input on how the scenarios would change the land use in the future.
•	 Collect possible interventions under the different scenarios to diminish land use change (forest loss) (and improve poverty alleviation).

1.2.	Workshop participants
The workshop attracted participants from a different set of organizations involved in land use change at province level. 
 
1.3.	Output
•	Scenarios of future land use change: 
•	List of proposed changes to scenarios. 
•	List of key definitions of new scenarios. 
•	Selected key drivers by groups and in plenary. 
•	Agreed big pictures of scenarios. 
•	Input about other than key drivers. 
•	List of interventions under each scenario plus individual and group votes about those most relevant interventions under the different scenarios. If there is time, agreed important interventions common to all interventions.
•	Table with the land use changes under each scenario  
•	An additional desired output from both workshops is to collect the discussions during the workshops, in order to incorporate stakeholder concerns, understandings, and the different views from different stakeholders, etc. 
Table 2: Agenda.
First day: Scenario development for land use change in Mozambique	
Time 	Presentation and exercises	
9:00-9:10	Opening of the seminar	
9:00-11:00	Quick round of presentation of the participants 
Workshop aims 
Introduction to ACEs. 
What are scenarios?
Presentation of the ACEs scenario process so far 
Presentation of the three storylines	
11:00-11:30	Morning coffee	
11:30-13:00	Group Exercise - split into 5 groups
Read, deconstruct and refine scenarios
Fill in response forms 	
13:00-14:00	Each group reports back their main findings. 	
14:00-15:00	Lunch	
15:00-16:00	Session intro presentation: Effects of each scenario on land use change 

Group Exercise - 3 groups: Effects of each scenario on land use change	
16:00-18:00	Report back on Effects of each scenario on land use change	
5 minutes	Final conclusions and close	
	End and refreshing	

Second day: Causal diagrams para: perceber a relação entre servicios ecosistemicos e bem-estar rural		
	Presentation and exercises		
8:30-10:30	Session intro presentation : Effect of spatial data on scenarios Effect of different spatial data on scenarios of land use change in rural Mozambique in 2035
Group Exercise 
Report back on scenarios +land use change	Raul Varela 

Raul, Isilda, Julieta –Pedro
Facilitator: Raul Varela	
	Morning coffee		
11:00-11:20	Intro to Causal diagram	Pedro Zorrilla Miras e Raul Varela	

11:20-11:45

11:45-12:30

12:30-13:15	3 groups:  
-Well-being components

-Ecosystem services
-Choose main factors affecting Forest degradation and deforestation: subsistence agriculture, tobacco farming, charcoal production. Factors affecting these activities 

- What interventions could be done?	Raul, Isilda, Julieta –Pedro	
13:15-14:15	Lunch		
14:15-15:00	Effects of interventions on land use change.
Facilitators show and explain the effects proposed for Mabalane BBN. 
Participants complete tables with their new interventions and the new land use categories. 	Raul, Isilda, Julieta –Pedro	
15:00-16:15	Report back on the BBN constructed by each group. 	Facilitator: Raul Varela	
16:15-16:45	Final conclusions and close	Isilda Nhantumbo	
	End and refreshing		

2.	Findings
In this section, we present the results of each session and of the group discussion that followed each session.
2.1.	Session on Scenarios refinement
2.1.1.	Comparative analysis of Society between the scenarios
During the presentation in the plenary it was possible to find out that the effect of each scenario on society issues was not as linear as described (Table 3.1). The participants rose out the fact that the population may not increase or decrease as result of one of the scenarios but as result of family planning. The high private investment may increase the migration from rural to urban areas, compounded by the reduction of dependence on natural resources. But for scenario B and C the migration will be in two ways. Regarding the basic social services there is no direct link with the high or medium scale private investments. It is more related with government priorities and how they lead the development process. An example is the “fund for district development” 7 billion (that must be used as a credit fund to finance small and medium private initiatives in the districts) that did not yield the expected results.
The prominence of civil society is supposed to be low in the scenario of high private investment promotion and high in the scenario of promotion of medium scale investment or the intermediate scenario. Nevertheless, they also pointed out that important conflicts might emerge between investors and local population. Regarding the livelihood, in the scenario of high promotion of large scale investment the participation of the communities in the development process may need to be strengthened and it will depend on the expansion of basic social services that may have a trend to increase in scenario B, but not too much because of the still basic social services and livelihood of rural families will be improved in scenario C because of better social services. There was a little inconsistence if we see that the group said that the level of investment does not influence the basic social services, but may be understandable when they say high role of civil society organisation may lead to an increase on basic social services (as energy, water, schools, etc.) and consequently to improvement of rural family livelihoods. The group also suggested that the gender and equity issues and conflicts between investors and local community were also important factors that should be included in the narratives of the scenarios. They proposed to talk about families better than communities. 
Table 3.1- Comparative analysis of society between three scenarios 
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Population	High increase of population√	Slightly increase of population √	Slightly increase of population √	
Rural and urban migration 	Migration from rural to urban areas is high 
Migration from rural to urban areas
Leadership system and local structure;
No dependence on agriculture and natural resources 	The rate urban and rural population remain stable l √	The migration to rural areas increase 
The migration to rural area is stable l	
Social Service	Social service decrease 
The policy on promoting promotional rights is not proportional 	Social services effective and adequate 
Example of 7 billion;
The service may be adequate and effective if the policies and investments incentives of small and medium scale are inclusive (rural sector)	Social services a good only in some districts √
	
Civil society role 	Reduce the influence of civil society organization √ 	The civil society organization give voice to the society √	The civil society organizations are prominent as well as the private companies 
The civil society organization give voice to the society √	
livelihood	Many rural families do not improve their livelihood √	Significant improvement of the livelihood in of the families in rural areas 
Slightly improve of the livelihood of the families in rural areas;
The expansion of qualified basic social services (energy, health, water, schools)	Some rural families improve their livelihood √	
Add a new issue: Gender and age				
Add new factor: conflicts 				

2.1.2.	Comparative analysis of environment between three scenarios
Land scarcity is not a problem in Niassa, but some investors give up because of the bureaucratic process for acquisition of the right for land use. The establishment of forest plantations will continue to be affected by this administrative bottleneck, if reforms are not made. There is no sustainable management of forest in the small-scale investments scenario (B) however, it is promoted in the scenario C (Table 3.3). Although biodiversity conservation is not a priority for the big investments in scenario A the awareness among this issue and the international market demand on certification will in 20 years ignite the interest on biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of natural resources. Also there is a political will to address biodiversity and the conservation of natural resources at the parliamentary level. Another factor that influences the sustainable use of natural resources and biodiversity conservation is the low capacity of the government to control it.
In the context of climate change adaptation the most important factors are the capacity to implement, awareness raising and education – knowledge and investment capacity to implement mitigation and adaptation actions and promote the transformation process. Participants agreed that the prospects seem better in scenario B. But the participants also referred that there are companies that are aware of the need of adaptation and ask for help from specialized non-governmental organisation to elaborate adaption plans for their investments. They said that maybe projects as REDD could be used by big private companies. 

Table 3.2- Comparative analysis of environment between the scenarios 

Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Biodiversity	the biodiversity conservation is not a priority √	The biodiversity conservation is a priority for the government at national, provincial and district level 
But the implementation of conservation policies if weak 	The biodiversity conservation is a priority (leaded by international organizations )
Beside international organizations there will be the national and private sector committed or concerned with conservation or 	
Adaptation to climate change	The mitigation and adaptation to climate change more reactive then proactive √	The mitigation of climate change is taking seriously 
Awareness, education, investment in alternatives to mitigate  climate changes 	Implementation of strategies to adapt to climate change 
The level of police implementation is weak;
Low application of scientific knowledge 
Acceptance of the low 	
Protected areas	Few protected areas and most of them for ecotourism √	Many areas of conservation of wildlife √	Slightly increase of protected areas √	
Forest Management	Forest management through forest plantations 
Investment in forest plantations;
The bureaucracy for land tenure takes to abandonment of the forest plantation activities;	The sustainable management of forests is a priority √	Promotion of sustainable management of forest √	
Land use change	Large agrarian and charcoal production projects √	Small scale agriculture initiatives 
Small scale agriculture initiatives 
still the practice of subsistence  farming  	Expansion of small farmers and large companies √	

2.1.3.	Comparative analysis of economy between the three scenarios

In the plenary discussions the participants referred the industrial growth in Niassa province but also a limitation on the long-term concessions for scenario A (Table 3.4). The level of long-term concessions will increase in scenario B and will be followed by an increase in tax revenues, more access to credit by small farmers, more diversified job opportunities with most of families improving their livelihoods and wellbeing.  Scenario C will be characterized by a reasonable investment in industrial development and more consciousness of taxpayers.
An additional factor was economics transactions. This refers to the exchanges in services, more demand of banking services and other tertiary services. These tend to be high in scenario B and reasonable in scenario A. Scenario C will witness a reasonable increase in economic transactions. There was no consensus regarding this additional factor, because to some of participants it is implicit in other factors. Another added factor was peace, which was considered a transversal issue for all five comparative analyses of the scenarios.
Access to roads and geographic asymmetries are other factors added by the group. The weak access to main national roads has negative effect in the development, a factor that partly explains the asymmetrical development that affects Niassa negatively. This asymmetry is notable even inside the Niassa province where the big investments have not led to an improvement in infrastructure – e.g. there is no investment on infrastructures in the districts covered by PROSAVANA, a project that promotes small and medium sized enterprises to 2030 in Nacala corridor. They explained that different parts of Niassa province have different potentials: Lago district with mining potentials, the districts around Nacala corridor with agrarian and mining potentials, the National Reserve with touristic potentials and the Lúrio valley with potentials for investments in agrarian, forestry, wildlife and tourism. Those areas show a lack of infrastructural improvements. The concept of asymmetry varies according to the type of investment at the local Level.
They talk that the infrastructures needed are schools, hospitals, roads and energy infrastructures. 

Table 3.3- Comparative analysis of economy between the scenarios 

Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Industrial growth	Large investments in industrial growth 
Slightly appearing of industry 	Slightly industrial growth √	Strong investment in industrial development 
Reasonable investment in industrial development 	
Concessions	Increase on the long-term concessions 
Limitation on the long-term concessions 	Few concessions 
Increase on the concessions number 	Increase on the concessions but limited by the civil society √ 	
Fees and taxes 	Low taxes applied to foreign investors √	High taxes applied to foreign companies 
Increase of revenues 	Intermediate taxes applied to international investors 
Significant increase on the tax base 	
Agrarian credits	Small farmers continue with limited access to credit √	The credits schemes are popular between farmers 
Major access to credit to small farmers 	Increase for large and not for small farmers 
Increase for small farmers 	
Employment	Job opportunities among the large investments √	The jobs in the rural areas are not only in wood and food production 
Diversified job opportunities 	Job opportunities in industry, agriculture and forest private sector companies 	
Redistribution of wealth	The discrepancy between rich and poor increase √	Manny rural families improve their livelihood
Some rural families improve their livelihood 	Balance between A and B √	
Economic transactions 				
Peace 	Increase the investors’ confidence 	increase	Reasonable increase 	
Energy access roads and geographic asymmetry (infrastructures) 				

2.1.4.	Comparative analysis of technology between three scenarios 
Although the group agreed that access to technology will be in-depth in the scenarios that promotes small-scale enterprise as stated in table 3.2, they also disclaim that agriculture will be intensive in the scenario of high large-scale investment, but it will tend to be more intensive in the scenario that promote small-scale investment, and in the scenario that promotes a balance between large and small-scale investments. They say that PROSAVANA is trying to provide agriculture extension services for small and medium farmers. They also propose that in scenario B agriculture will be more sustainable because the environmental awareness will increase.  
Regarding the energy production, they discussed the need to increase the exploitation of coal in scenario A (Niassa has coal but not gas nor petrol), the wind energy production systems in scenario B and the increase of coal exploitation in land. The participants also mentioned the prospecting of petrol in Niassa Lake (and the possibility to find petrol there, which now is unknown), the dispute on hydrocarbons in the Rovuma Bacin between Malawi, Tanzania and Mozambique and the fact the South Africa is benefiting from Pande Gas while Mozambique is not having condition to benefitting from it. 
In order to promote investment in scenario A there is a need to increase the number of asphalt and tertiary roads (main and secondary roads). Scenario B will have an improvement of tertiary roads and in scenario C, both tertiary and asphalted roads are targeted. As of present the internet is already in some districts. Through mobile networks, the access and expansion will increase in the three scenarios in twenty years.

Table 3.4- Comparative analysis of technology between scenarios
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Beneficiaries 	Technology being used in large agrarian companies and contracted excluding small farmers √	Small farmers benefiting from extension services √	Big agrarian companies, contracted and local communities √	
intensive/sustainable	Intensive agriculture
Extensive agriculture (exploiting more areas) 	Implantation of sustainable agriculture √	Intensive (extensive) and sustainable agriculture √	
Energy	Significant increase of gas exploitation in the offshore in land √	Systems of production of alternative energy  of wind and solar energy √	Increase of exploitation of gas offshore 
Increase of exploitation of coal in land 	
Type of roads	Increase asphalted roads (no improvement in the tertiary roads)
Increase of asphalted roads will increase the tertiary roads 	Improve of tertiary roads √	Increase asphalted roads (no improvement in the tertiary roads)
Increase of asphalted roads will increase the tertiary roads	
Access to internet	Limited expansion of internet in the rural zones 
Expansion of internet in the rural zones 	Improvement the access to internet in the rural zones in accessible costs √	Access to internet is cheap in rural zones 	

2.1.5.	Comparative analysis of policy between three scenarios

The participants agreed with the statements on the effect of the scenarios on democracy, it will increase from scenario A to C (Table 3.5). Regarding the media, it will be restricted, with pressure from big international companies for having access to information, what will tend to privilege their interests. In the long-term there will not be major improvements in implementing legislation, with the big companies only interested in generating fast and high profits rather than sustainability and implementing legislation that is ecologically friendly. These decisions will often be taken at international and national level not favouring the decentralization process.
In scenario B the local government will participate in the decision making process. This scenario will create a medium-class interested in participating in the decision making process and make a difference in the local development. Because the development process in this scenario is not complex all social classes will be integrated. The implementation of social policies will be a challenge due the number of private companies involved and weak government apparatus to enforce laws - e.g. regarding the many small companies in the forest sector. This scenario will lead to an explosion of small and medium enterprises that will open the door for governments at regional level to establish commercial relationships with other industries because of the need to export produce.
In scenario C, although there is some emphasis on a manipulated media the existence of a strong democracy will set it free. Also, pressure from local community will play a role. The implementation of social and environmental policies will be in an embryonic stage. The commercial exchange and the role of Mozambique at global level will be strengthened – Mozambique may become a model on combining small and medium-sized enterprises in a sustainable way. The decision making process will be at international, national and local levels. One factor to add is peace, tolerance and security.
Currently, there is public pressure to increase the freedom of speech. This implies that communication is not completely restricted. However, there are still big companies that do not share information such as Mozal (an aluminium company in Matola – Maputo province) and Chikweti (a forest plantation company). 

Table 3.5- Comparative analysis of policy between the scenarios 

Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Democracy 	Reduced democratic freedom √	Healthy/good democracy √	Improved democracy √	
Media	Free (and private) press
Restricted media	Relatively free press 
Free press
	Relatively free press √
	
Environmental and social policies 	No improvement in the implementation of social and environmental policies √	The implementation of social and environmental policies is a successes 
The implementation of social and environmental policies is a challenge 	Improvement in the implantation of social and environmental policies 
Starting the implantation of social and environmental policies 	
Relationship with neighbouring countries 	The relationship with neighbouring countries is improving with commerce √	Mozambique as a model to another African countries on openness to foreign investment without a risk for the natural resources 
Strength the relationship with neighbouring and African countries in general 	The balance between private investment and management of natural resources, improve the policy position of Mozambique in worldwide 
Development of private investment and management of natural resources improve the policy position of Mozambique in Africa 	

2.2.	Session on Effect of each scenario on land use change
2.2.1.	First 3 groups. Tables with percentage of change, drivers and mechanisms. 

For scenario A, a reduction in 7,5% of the forest cover had the consensus of the plenary and the main drivers indicated were an increase in pressure from the private sector for production of commercial crops and opening of new roads (Table 3.6). In scenario B the forest cover will reduce by 30% caused by an increase in the urban area (Table 3.7), while in scenario C the reduction in forest cover will be 10% caused by an increase in forest concessions, and mechanized agriculture and the manufacture of burnt bricks (Table 3.8) .The main regulatory mechanisms are environmental legislation, forest and agriculture legislation – improving the control and productivity, and land use planning.
The increase of cropland by 10% in scenario A and B in 2035, results from mechanized agriculture, new investments, peace market facilities and population explosion. Scenario C proposed an increase of 20% of cropland caused by a major demand for commercial crops, new investments in agriculture, and an increase in population. The agrarian legislation that promotes sustainable agriculture practices may regulate the process, through promotion of agroforest systems, and conservation agriculture.
There will be a slight increase in grasslands in the three scenarios as a result of low potential for livestock that characterize the province and Marrupa district, a reduction of shrublands by 12% in scenario A and by 30% in scenario C caused by a major demand for fuel wood and building materials. This may be regulated by the promotion of improved stoves and forest plantation and community forest.

Table 3.6- Characteristics of land use change of the scenarios: scenario A - Marrupa District – 2035.

Land cover categories 	Initial occupied land 	Pass trends 	Land use change	
			To be filed by the group	
	2000 (ha)	2005 (ha)	2000 (%)	2005 (%)	2000-2005	2035	Main drivers of land use change 	Mechanisms regulating the change 	
Forest	1,014,524	1,079,355	57.9	61.6	+3.7%	-7.5%	•	Demography;
•	Agriculture;
•	Tobacco crop – commercial crops 
•	Increase of access roads 	•	 Environmental legislation; 
•	Forestry plantation (promoting cashew) 
•	Conservation agriculture
•	Land use planning	
Croplands	19,274	78,849	1.1	4.5	+3.4%	+7.5%	•	Mechanized agriculture;
•	Increase the promotion of commercial crops; 
•	Market access facilities;
•	Peace	•	Production techniques;
•	Access to production inputs;
•	Agrarian policies;
•	Legislation;	
Grassland	168,211	196,246	9.6	11.2	+1.6%	+2.8%	•	Demography;
•	Reduction of wildlife;
•	Diversification of household income sources 	•	Extension techniques	
Shrublands	527,412	387,236	30.1	22.1	-8%	-12%	•	Demography;
•	Agriculture;
•	Commercial crops;
•	Charcoal production
•	Increase of access roads	•	Alternative extension techniques 	
Others	227,796	10,513	1.3	0.6	-0.7%		 		
Total	1,752,200	1,752,200	100	100	-		 	 	

Table 3.7 - Characteristic of land use change of the scenarios. Scenario B - Marrupa district – 2035.

Land cover categories 	Initial occupied land	Pass trends	Land use change	
			To be filed by the group	
	2000 (ha)	2005 (ha)	2000 (%)	2005 (%)	2000 (ha)	2005 (ha)	Main drivers of land use change 	Mechanisms regulating the change 	
Forest	1,014,524	1,079,355	57.9	61.6	+3.7%	-30%	•	Pressing on the resources;
•	Differences in technology 	•	Licencing;
•	Regulation;
•	Technology transference;
	
Croplands 	19,274	78,849	1.1	4.5	+3.4%	+11.5%	•	Commercial agriculture;	•	Land tenure (DUAT);
•	Technology transferring 	
Grassland	168,211	196,246	9.6	11.2	+1.6%	+4%	•	Pests and diseases 	•	Promoting the goat creation 	
Shrublands 	527,412	387,236	30.1	22.1	-8%	-12%	•	Pressing on the resources for charcoal production	•	Promoting the goat creation;
•	Licencing	
Others	227,796	10,513	1.3	0.6	-0.7%		•		•		
Total	1,752,200	1,752,200	100	100	-		•		•		

Table 3.8- Characteristic of land use change in the scenarios: Scenario C - Marrupa District – 2035.

Land cover categories 	Initial occupied land	Pass trends	Land use change	
			To be filed by the group	
	2000
(ha)	2005
(ha)	2000 (%)	2005 (%)	2000-2005	2035	 Main drivers of land use change 	Mechanisms that regulate the change 	
Forest 	1,014,524	1,079,355	57.9	61.6	+3.7%	-10%	•	New forest concessions;
•	Increase the agrarian mechanization;
•	Major demand for forest and agriculture products;
•	Manufacture of burned brick 	•	Control of management plans;
•	Conservation agriculture – increase on the productivity;
•	Haulage/traction must round areas with conserved species;
•	Improving the control capacity in human and material resources	
Croplands 	19,274	78,849	1.1	4.5	+3.4%	+20%	•	Major demand for agriculture products;
•	New agriculture investors;
•	Demographic growth;
•	Industrialization	•	Conservation agriculture;
•	Increase on the productivity;
•	Agroforestry systems 	
Grassland  	168,211	196,246	9.6	11.2	+1.6%	+5%	•	Low potential for livestock production;	•	Creation of small ruminants;	
Shrublands 	527,412	387,236	30.1	22.1	-8%	-30%	•	Major demands for charcoal and building material  	•	Promotion of forestry (forest plantation) in the communities ( community forests) 
•	One extensionist one forest initiatives 
•	Improved stove and oven 	
Others	227,796	10,513	1.3	0.6	-0.7%				
Total	1,752,200	1,752,200	100	100	-				

2.2.2.	Second 3 groups.  Proposal of the evolution of land use changes, ecosystem services availability and rural wellbeing. 
The 3 groups where asked to present and justify only the points where they did not agree with what was proposed by the project. Group A referred that there should be no interference on the protected areas, contrasting with what was stated by the project (Table 3.9). Regarding the production of food crops the group suggested that it will decrease because of the increase in the production of commercial crops, although the production area increases. The grasslands will diminish as result of the increase in croplands. There will also be an increase of household income, access to jobs and also of other wellbeing component as access to market and improved infrastructures.
The fact that some food crops may be commercial crops and vice-versa in different localities was emphasized - e.g. beans in Niassa is a commercial crop, but in the south of Mozambique it is a food crop – to the participants for them to understand that the most important issue was the productive potential of Marrupa district. The production of food crops will diminish because there is a tendency for small farmers to switch to the production of commercial crops, consequently reducing the area and efforts on food crop cultivation.
In scenario B, the group suggested a slight increase on forest areas due to a reduction in the use of charcoal in urban areas and mandatory reforestation to the large companies. This issue was discussed because the plenary suggested that the forest area will reduce due the deforestation that is on an increase and is not compensated by reforestation. – the reforested area are and will continue being smaller than the deforested. The increase in charcoal production and the relative intense agriculture production that characterizes scenario B will contribute to an increase in deforestation. The charcoal producers and carpenters do not engage in reforestation activities.
The urban areas will also decrease due to the increase in human settlements. The protected areas will reduce in this scenario due to the existence of households inside them. Currently there are some protected areas being resized due to this phenomenon. The interests on fossil fuel and mining resources have not affected the sizes of protected areas, but demographic factors will affect them. Grassland will also reduce due to big areas of forest plantation. Although there is the emergence of new grasslands in districts that did not have such a feature on the landscape. Regarding ecosystem services, biodiversity, soil fertility as well as water resources will diminish. As these three factors are strongly linked with climate change, if nothing is done to mitigate their impact, these factors will continue diminishing.
For scenario c, because of deforestation, ecosystem services such as charcoal, biodiversity and soil fertility will reduce.

Table 3.9. Effect of scenario on land use change, ecosystem services and well-being. Results from group A.

Table 3.10. Effect of scenario on land use change, ecosystem services and well-being. 

Table 3.11. Effect of scenario on land use change, ecosystem services and well-being. 

2.3.	Session on Effect of different spatial data on scenarios of land use change in rural Mozambique in 2035

Distance from the cities
During the plenary sessions only the differences were discussed. The primordial role that distance from the cities has on closed forest, open forest, shrublands and grasslands and how it contributes to the deforestation and reduction of grasslands were discussed. The proximity from the cities was considered to have a medium influence in the shifting cultivation, as the farmers that leave in the city continue to practice shifting cultivation, although they have to travel to their agriculture lands that are far from the cities (Table 3.12). This also depends on the size of the city, because the effect on small towns is very low, since farm lands are close to the town. The distance from the cities also has a big influence on the reduction of water bodies and increase in human settlements. The protected areas are strongly threatened by urbanization and the construction of infrastructure that tend to be higher the closer the protected areas are to the cities, provoking new pressures to resize these areas. Despite the tendency that the human settlements have to be relocated away from mining areas because of pollution, the proximity to the city also tend to increase mining activities specially the ones related to exploitation of building material as stones and sand, etc. Potential mining activity is not stopped because of human settlements – new settlements and resettlements are created to reduce the impact of this activity in the population.
Distance from the roads
The distance from the road also has a high influence on the reduction of the three types of forest, and also on grassland, although it has to be discussed in the plenary – some of participants were defending the existence of human settlements along the roads and consequently the existence of grassland. Shifting cultivation is also greatly influenced by the distance from the road that reduces the areas for this unsustainable practice. Regarding water bodies and wetlands they reduce in size as they occur closer to the roads – medium/high influence.
Slope
The slope has a medium to low influence on the reduction of close forest, open forest and shrublands, and also medium to high influence on grassland. For commercial agriculture, the effect of slope tends to be medium to high – because such areas are not suitable for commercial agriculture as they require high investment on the production techniques (and are physically more demanding),  and medium if we also consider that the sloped areas are not used for commercial agriculture. The same may happen for shifting cultivation, because the slope is physically more demanding to work on a steep slope. Nevertheless, information exists on the practice of agriculture on inclined areas. Slope also difficult the construction of human settlements affecting negatively this land cover category.
Aspect (Orientation)
The Aspect has high to medium influence in most the land cover categories except mining areas. The exposition to sun increase all the forest cover categories, making lands more suitable for commercial agriculture and shifting cultivation. Aspect to sun also had a  medium effect in human settlements, water bodies and protected areas.
Slope and Aspect (Orientation)
Forests cover categories suffer low influence of slope and aspect factor. But this factor has high influence on human settlements. The effect on protected areas was first indicated as low but it increases to medium as the participants understood that the slope and aspect affect the habitat for wildlife and consequently protected areas.
Soil
Soil was indicated to have a high influence on forests cover types. Fertile soils have a high probability of being deforested in order to make way for agricultural lands. Soils were noted to have a low effect on shrublands and medium effect on wetlands. The effect of soil on grassland was considered to be medium. Commercial agriculture and shifting cultivation were indicated to be highly influenced by the soil. The soil has a medium effect on the human settlements as it affects the type of building material to use. Finally the protected areas are less affected.
Other factors
Type of roads – asphalted, tertiary and local roads have high effects on the forest and shifting cultivation, medium effect on commercial agriculture and conservation areas. The rivers have high effects on forest, open forest, shrublands, grassland, shifting cultivation and a medium effect on human settlements. The altitude has a high effect on the forest, shrublands, commercial agriculture and a medium effect on shifting cultivation – uplands offer good conditions for agricultural activities. The participants recommended that the three factors should be added to the following tables in future workshop.

Table 3.12- Summary of the three groups’ discussions on the effect of spatial information in land use change
Categories of land use change 	1	2	3	4	5	6	7			
	Distance from the city 	Distance from the roads 	Slope	Exposure	Exposure 
+ 
Slope 	Soils	Type of roads	Rivers	Altitude	
Forest	4-5	4	2	4-3	3-2	2,4,4 (4)	5 (4)	4	4	
Open forest	4-5	4-5	2,3,4 (3)	4	3-2	2,5,4 (4)	5 (4)	4	4	
Shrublands	5-4	5-4	2,3,3 (3)	1,4,3 (3)	3-2	2	5 (4)	4	4	
Grassland	4	2,4,4 (4)	5,2,2 (3)	3-4	3	5,3,2 (3)	2	4	3	
Croplands (food or commercial crops)	4-3	4-5	5,2,3 (4)	4-3	4	5-4	4	4	4	
Shift cultivation + forests	5,5,1 (consensus =3)	4,5,3 (4)	3-2	4	4	5-4	3	5	4	
Water bodies 	3,4,5 (4)	5,4,3 (4)	2,,4,3 (3)	3	1,3,3 (3)	3	4	-	3	
Human settlements 	5	5	5 *	2,3,4 (3)	4-3	1,4,2 (3)	5	3	3	
Protected areas 	5	5	1(3)	1(3)	1(3)	2	5 (3)			
Mining 	3	5	1	1	1	4	5 (3)			
Subtitle – where appears two numbers 4 -5, means that two groups vote in the first one and the one group in the second one. It happens when is consecutive numbers or similar results. – When appear 2, 4, 4 (4) the number in parenthesis is the consensus for all three groups.