REPORT WITH THE RESULTS FROM THE SCENARIOS WORKSHOP IN QUELIMANE

Quelimane – Mozambique 28/10/2015

Julieta Matediane and Pedro Zorrilla-Miras
30/10/2015

ACES PROJECT: LIVELIHOODS AND LAND USE CHANGE IN MOZAMBIQUE
WP 1 AND WP5
	© University of Edinburgh	

Plenary discussions on the scenario refining are added before the resulting tables.

1.	1st Session: refining the scenarios

1.1.	Comparative analysis of society between the three story lines
The plenary proposed the addition of job opportunities issue
Table 3.1.  Comparative analysis of Society between the scenarios (moderated by Natasha)
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Population	Strong increase of population. 
The population can reduce, due to improvement of life quality (taking to more adherences to the family planning). Reducing the idea big family means more workforce.	The population increase slightly.
The population will increases strongly – low job opportunities more children.	The population increase slightly. √
yes	
Rural and urban migration 	High migration from rural to urban zones.
The migration from rural to urban areas will reduce due to the increase of job opportunities created by the industry  expansion	The rate urban and rural population keeps stable. 
Yes. Since the small companies do not have strong impact in population life. 	Migration to rural zones increase 
Yes. People are looking for new job opportunities.	
Social Service	Social services reduce. 
No. They will increase as well as the bank and companies 	Social services effective and adequate 
No. Improving slowly, since the influence in the community is small 	The social services are good in some districts 
Yes. Since in some cases like hospitals the only benefit the district where they are localized 	
Civil society role 	Reduce the influence of the civil society national organizations 
It will increase, because with large companies the communities rights will increase and there will be more need of civil society action 	Civil society organization effective and adequate 
Community empowered to fight to their rights 	Civil society organization are as effective as the large international companies 
No. The civil society organizations must be present so that the communities have power to fight for their rights in benefits sharing.	
livelihood	Many rural family do not improve their livelihood;
No. the livelihood will improve, since the access to job will improve	pronounced improvement of  livelihood in rural areas
The livelihood will improve but in a pronounced way.	Some rural communities improve their livelihood 

Add a new factor:
Culture

Solidarity 
Environment

Job Opportunity	
New values and not the preservation of local culture 
Low fragile 	
stable

stable – 
Empowerment of civil society 	
Moderate

Moderate 	

1.2.	Comparative analysis of Environment between the three story lines
Another factor that could be added as an issue to environment analyse is the reduction on carbon sequestration that will reflect in climate change through the contribution to global warming. For the scenario B in 2030 the farmers will consider important the conservation of biodiversity. 
Table 3.2- Comparative analysis of environment between the scenarios  
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Biodiversity	Biodiversity conservation with low a priority. √
	The biodiversity conservation is a priority for the central, provincial and local government. √
Yes. Because the small companies usually acquire their license through the district and province. While the large companies usually have the approval from central government. And either one or another are really worried with biodiversity conservation because they are not directly affected by biodiversity loss.	The biodiversity conservation is a priority leaded by international organizations. 
Currently the civil society is influent and has something to say on this issue.

Adaptation to climate change	Mitigation and adaptation to climate change more reactive then proactive 
Mitigation to climate change more reactive. 	The mitigation to climate change is taking serious. √ 
Yes. The mitigation to climate change is taking serious with NGOs support.	Implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. √
Yes. Implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in both scenarios would be more viable.	
Protected areas	Few protected areas mostly dedicated to ecotourism. √	Lot of wildlife protected areas 	Slightly increase of protected areas. 
This could be the alternative for the scenarios A and B 	
Forest Management	Intesification of forest plantation 
It should occour bu tis not 	Sustainable management of forest is a priority. 
Uncontrolled forest exploitation practiced by large privet companies influence the small ones 	Promotion and sustainable management of forest. √
Could be viable alternative 	
Land use change	Large project of agriculture production and increase of charcoal exploitation
Large agriculture and forest projects 	Small-scalle agriculture iniciatives 
And increase of agriculture production 	Expansion of small, medium and large companies. √
Expansion of small, medium and large companies, to promote conservation agriculture 	
Add a new factor: Monitoring and supervising: is important to start with serious supervising and punishing as a way to reduce the occurrence of law infractions regarding environment and 			

1.3.	Comparative analysis of economy between the three story lines
In scenario A the state will neglect the small producers, prioritizing the large-scale investment. The government have a tendency to attract new investment through some taxes exemption. While in the promotion of small-scale investment there are no taxes exemptions. The scenario A will have more large scale concessions in detriment of the small ones, harming the local communities in rural areas. In the scenario C is expected that civil society limits this increment on large-scale concession. 
Table 3.3. - Comparative analysis of economy between the scenarios 
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Industrial growth	Large investment in industrial growth. √	Slightly industrial growth.
The industrial growth is substantial 	Strong investment in industrial growth. √	
Concessions	Increase on the long term concessions. √	 Few concessions. √	Increase on concessions, but limited by civil society. √
	
Fees and taxes 	Low taxes applied to foreign investors. √
 Yes. Due to taxes exemptions promoted to attract investments
	Increase on the revenue
With the promotion of small medium enterprises is notable the increase of revenues 	Significant increase on the taxes base. √ 	
Agrarian credits	Small farmers continue with limited access to credit. √
Yes. The state will be concentrate in large scale investment  neglected  the small producers  	The credits schemes are popular between farmers. √
	increase to large scale producers but tis limited to small producers 
Increase to large scale producers but is moderate to small producers 
	
employment	Job opportunities among large scale investment. √	Diversification of employment opportunities in rural areas. √	Substantial increase of job opportunities. √	
Redistribution of wealth	The discrepancy between rich and poor increase.√	Manny rural families improve their livelihood. √	Balance between scenario A and B.
Unbalance between scenario A and B 	
Add a new factor			

1.4.	Comparative analysis of technology between three scenarios
In 20 years horizon the state must train qualified labour for the large investment and not wait that the large investors bring foreign. The small-scale investments must train/capacity/educate their own suns for the continuity of the investment. Their education must respond to the needs of their localities, to avoid what is happening actually – the youth leave their village to study without job perspective and not planning to come back to their village. At the end or after finish their studies they work to the large foreign investment that comes to the country (number of Mozambicans working to Mozal), not being used to develop their own place of origin.
Table 3.4 - Comparative analysis of technology between scenarios
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Beneficiaries 	Technology being used in large scale companies and contracted excluding small farmers 
Technology being used in large scale companies and contracted including small farmers	Small farmers benefiting from extension services 
Associations and cooperatives with promotion of small scale technologies 	Large agrarian companies, hired and local community 
The group does not considered it relevant, as it is  repetition of scenario A 	
intensive/sustainable	Intensive agriculture
No	Implantation of sustainable agriculture. √
The group agree. CLUSA is implementing conservation agriculture – is a mega project of technology improvement with less soil disturb. 	Intensive sustainable agriculture.
Yes. The small farmers will in 30 years develop sustainable agriculture. While private sector a more intensive agriculture. The reason is that the first ones are the ones the suffer the effects of unsustainability	
Energy	Significant increase of gas exploitation offshore and in land. √
In Nicaunde district was performed a study that discover gas that may be exploited by 2035. 	Local alternative energy production system - wind and solar energy source. √  
yes	Increase of gas exploitation offshore. 
Increase the exploitation of alternative energies.
	
Type of roads	Increase of asphalted roads and no improvement in tertiary roads 
Expansion of roads network without limits 	Improve of tertiary roads. 
Yes. AS there is already some artisans making pave. In 2035 they may be producing as family sector. 	Improvement of asphalted roads and not of tertiary roads. 
Improvement of asphalted and tertiary roads.	
Access to internet	Limited expansion of internet in rural zones.	Improvement access to internet and mobile phones in rural areas in accessible costs. √
Example of this are the farms from Namarroi that have access to internet due the facilities offered by Movitel and Vodacom 	Access to low cost internet in rural areas and internet massification. 
Yes  	
Education 	Mega projects comes with their workers (south African or Chinese) so is important to invest in local education. 	The state must massif the local education as a way to provide workforce to the new investments coming to country	Inclusive and integrated training.
Inclusive or integrated training 

1.5.	Comparative analysis of policy between three scenarios

The environmental and social policies exist, but the small scale producers are the ones more penalized by these. Although the large investors have knowledge about it, the government cannot get them to implement.  The Mozambicans have difficulties to invest in the neighbourhood countries. Despite the Mozambican policies facilitate the investment from neighbourhood countries. All participants agree with the regional integration, but this will not be enough.
Table 3.5 – Comparative analysis of policy between the scenarios
Issues	Story line A: Promotion of the private sector large scale investment 	Story line B: Promotion of private sector small enterprise 	Story line C: middle between A and B	
Democracy 	Reduced Democratic freedom √	Health/good democracy
The democracy will be strengthened but it will not be healthy due management issue, e.g. lack of transparency on how to have access to the local development fund.	Stable democracy/improved democracy
The democracy will exist but will not be stable because of the lack of transparency on the management of local development funds 	
Media	Press with some partiality. √
The press will tend to encourage the employers. The employees have restricted access to information. 	Relatively free press. √
A little more neutral
	Autonomous and impartial press. √
Yes Autonomous, nut relatively partial.	
Environmental and social policies 	No improvement in the implementation of social and environmental policies. √
Yes. The income sharing is not equitable. There is no any respect to the environmental and social policies, e.g. no forest reposition.	Some receptivity in the implementation of environmental and social policies. √
The national investors have more conscience on the need of implementation of social and environmental policies then a foreign investor	Improvement in the implementation of social and environmental policies. √
	
Relationship with neighbouring countries 	The relation with other neighbouring countries is improving with commerce. √
Yes. In Mozambique and SADC 
(rose up the question on the meaning of integration)
	Mozambique as a model to another African countries, on the promotion of small and medium enterprises 
Mozambique as a reference country. The local investment fund (7 million) is an incentive to this.	Favourable environment for sustainable investment, making Mozambique a worldwide reference. Yes. √

Add a new factor: Education 
	The large scale investor should support the implementation of professional/technical schools 	Access to information and technologies
	Access to education for all	

2.	2nd Session of group discussion - Effect of different spatial data on scenarios of land use change in rural Mozambique in 2035

Table 6 - Summary of the three groups’ discussions on the effect of spatial information in land use change. The numbers refer to importance that each group give to the factor as its influence on the change of the area occupied by each land use category. When appear 2, 4, 4 (4) the number in parenthesis is the consensus for all three groups after the plenary discussion. 
Categories of land use change 	1	2	3	4	5	6	7		
	Distance from the city 	Distance from the roads 	Slope	Exposure	Soil Erosion 	soils	rivers 	Any other factor
	
Native forest	5, 1, 5 (5)	5, 2, 4 (4)	4, 4, 1 (4)	1, 2, 3 (2)	4, 4, 1 (4)	1, 3, 1	2, 2,4	5	
Forest plantation (productive forest)	3, 4, 4	1, 2, 3	4, 2, 4	1, 3, 2	4, 4, 4	1, 3, 4	3, 2, 4	1	
shrublands	5, 2, 4	5, 4, 3	4, 1, 1	1, 3, 2	3, 3, 1	2, 3, 1	3, 2, 4	4	
grassland	2, 1, 3	1, 1, 3	4, 2, 1	2, 2, 3	4, 3, 4	1, 3, 4	3, 2, 3	4	
Commercial agriculture	4, 5, 4	2, 4, 4	2, 5, 2	2, 4, 3	4, 4, 1	1, 4, 5	1, 3, 3	4	
Shift cultivation 	2, 4, 5	2, 1, 4	2, 5, 2	2, 1, 2	5, 4, 4	1, 4, 4	3, 3, 4	4	
Water bodies 	2, 1, 4	5, 1, 4	3, 1, 3	2, 1, 2	5, 1, 3	5, 1, 1	5, 1, 4	1	
Human settlements 	2, 1, 5	1, 1, 5	4, 5, 4	1, 5, 2	5, 5, 3	1, 1, 1	3, 1, 1	1	
Livestock (Added by group 2)	4	1	4	2	4	3	2		

2.1.	Effect of different spatial data on scenarios of land use change in rural Mozambique in 2035
There was high difficulty to harmonize the perception of the methodology and find a consensus for the three groups.  The plenary discussion was interrupted because one of the participants had to be taken to the hospital

3.	Last comments from Dr Sitoe
The design scenarios were positive. The scenarios designed take us to think in what we dream or expect and also to think in what we don´t want to happen 
Policy group – there were points that the participants believe the currently situation will not change until 2035 and others that day believe in changes. The participants believe that the peace situation won’t be a problem in 2035. But the issue of low policy implementation capacity will never change. We must consider that some aspects are not ease to imagine but they may happen.
Group of economy – the issues of taxes exemption to big foreign companies may suffocate the national companies. But if the state do not incentive the foreign companies may be the national one does not have capacity to improve the business situation in the country.
Group of technology – the transference of technology may ensure the inclusion. But the level of technology transference may affect the comprehension capacity and the adoption by small farmers as well as the technical capacity of the operators;
Environment group – the referred factors are complex and the background of this project. Was referred the biodiversity, climate change, land use changes and others. What will happen with the ecosystem and natural habitats, they will continue providing goods and services to the communities? 
Society group – the population growth is the fundamental issue. The industrialization of rural zones, the role of civil society and the job opportunities. 
Added factors:
Monitoring and supervision – is a transversal issue, where we have to be very careful. All legal frameworks need to be followed by good monitoring and supervision. 
Education – to adopt technologies we need to have education that must be according to the complexity of technology.