The ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP) simulates the potential effects of government policies on agriculture and the natural environment in Wales. It allows emerging policy ideas for natural resource management, land use and agriculture to be developed, explored and stress-tested for a range of Welsh economic and regulatory futures before they are implemented.
The ERAMMP-IMP model was designed jointly by a UKCEH-led consortium with Welsh Government through the Environment and Rural Affairs Monitoring and Modelling Programme (ERAMMP). It recognises that drivers or policies in one sector may have consequences or unintended effects in other sectors, and so explicitly accounts for biophysical and socio-economic interactions between sectors. IMP comprises a chain of eleven specialised, state-of-the-art models customised (as best as practicable) with Welsh data to cover agriculture, forestry, land use allocation, biodiversity and a range of ecosystem services (including water quality, air quality, greenhouse gas emissions/carbon sequestration) and their valuation. Data flows between models and across the model chain to represent the interdependencies between different sectors or impacts. IMP operates at various spatial resolutions depending on what scale is most appropriate for the indicator and land management decision being simulated (e.g. sub-farm, farm, catchment). Version control and quality assurance is assured by compliance with UK Government's Aqua Book.
A first prototype of IMP was developed for the Welsh Government Strategic Evidence Group in 2019. A first fully functioning version was applied in 2020 to explore the impacts of Brexit trade deal scenarios on land use change, biodiversity and ecosystem services. Subsequent versions are being used to support the design of the Welsh Government Sustainable Farming Scheme. The model is frequently updated to address rapidly evolving policy needs in near real-time. Some components of ERAMMP Quick Start Tools (see separate entry) have been adapted or re-parameterised for use in ERAMMP-IMP: habitat connectivity model; impacts of land use change on peatland greenhouse gas emissions; data cube approaches.
ERAMMP-IMP is the only model designed specifically to test environmental policy scenarios and outcomes across the Welsh countryside: at a range of scales relevant to land use and land management decisions; and across sectors. It has been co-designed with Welsh Government to account for biophysical and socio-economic interactions between sectors, and to provide a customisable modeling framework that is sufficiently flexible to rapidly adapt to changing policy needs.
Development of ERAMMP-IMP with Welsh Government was led by UKCEH in collaboration with a consortium including: ADAS; British Trust for Ornithology; Cranfield University; eftec (economics for the environment consultants); Forest Research.
Access to ERAMMP-IMP is restricted to licenced users: Welsh Government.
Development of ERAMMP-IMP was funded by Welsh Government.
ERAMMP-IMP is used by Welsh Government who commissioned it for policy planning.