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The data describes peak river flow in m3/s and the associated annual probability of exceedance for each 1km grid-square on the GB river network. The data is extracted from daily time series data from the Grid-to-Grid model, using UKCP18 12km regional projections from 12 members of a perturbed parameter ensemble, over the periods Dec 1980 – Nov 2010 and Dec 2050 – Nov 2080 (based on 360-day years). Multi-day events were summarised by taking cell-wise flow maxima. \n\nThis data was generated for use in analysis of risk through catastrophe modelling using the Future Flows Explorer. It was generated and interpreted by UKCEH, working with Sayers & Partners Consultancy, as part of the AquaCAT project, part of the UK Climate Resilience Programme.","distributionFormats":[{"name":"Comma-separated values (CSV)","type":"text/csv","version":"unknown"},{"name":"Shapefile","version":"unknown"}],"distributorContacts":[{"organisationName":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04xw4m193","role":"distributor","email":"info@eidc.ac.uk"}],"id":"26ce15dd-f994-40e0-8a09-5f257cc1f2ab","incomingCitationCount":2,"incomingCitations":[{"description":"Griffin, A., Kay, A., Stewart, E., & Sayers, P. (2022). Spatially coherent statistical simulation of widespread flooding events under climate change. Hydrology Research, 53(11), 1428-1440","url":"https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2022.069"},{"description":"Griffin, A., Kay, A.L., Sayers, P., Bell, V., Stewart, E., & Carr, S. (2024). Widespread flooding dynamics under climate change: characterising floods using grid-based hydrological modelling and regional climate projections. In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Vol. 28, Issue 12, pp. 2635–2650). Copernicus GmbH. ","url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2635-2024"}],"infoLinks":[{"url":"https://data-package.ceh.ac.uk/sd/26ce15dd-f994-40e0-8a09-5f257cc1f2ab.zip","name":"Supporting information","description":"Supporting information available to assist in re-use of this dataset","function":"information","type":"OTHER"}],"inspireThemes":[{"theme":"Environmental Monitoring Facilities","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/theme/ef"}],"keywordsOther":[{"value":"Flood frequency"}],"keywordsTheme":[{"value":"Hydrology","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/9"},{"value":"Environmental risk","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/5"}],"licences":[{"value":"This resource is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence","code":"license","uri":"https://eidc.ac.uk/licences/ogl/plain"}],"lineage":"Hydrological flow records were generated using Grid-to-Grid and UKCP18 12km regional projections. Widespread events were selected for which daily flow exceeded a 99.5% percentile simultaneously over at least 20km^2. Multi-day events (consecutive days for which the above conditions were met) are summarised by pointwise maxima of flow.\n\nProbabilities of exceedance are computed pointwise using a mixed distribution, with an empirical distribution used for non-extreme values (below the 99.5% percentile) and a Generalised Pareto distribution used above, both fitted to the full time series of daily flow.","metadataDate":"2026-06-29T18:19:23","notGEMINI":false,"onlineResources":[{"url":"https://data-package.ceh.ac.uk/data/26ce15dd-f994-40e0-8a09-5f257cc1f2ab","name":"Download the data","description":"Download a copy of this data","function":"download","type":"OTHER"},{"url":"https://data-package.ceh.ac.uk/sd/26ce15dd-f994-40e0-8a09-5f257cc1f2ab.zip","name":"Supporting information","description":"Supporting information available to assist in re-use of this 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