{"accessLimitation":{"value":"embargoed","availability":"Embargoed","description":"Access to the resource is restricted until a specified date or the occurrence of a defined condition, after which access may be granted in accordance with applicable policies or licensing conditions","uri":"http://vocab.nerc.ac.uk/collection/N07/current/EMBG/"},"authors":[{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Frantsuzova","givenName":"Anastasia","organisationName":"Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/03jwrz939","role":"author","email":"anastasia.frantsuzova@bioss.ac.uk","fullName":"Frantsuzova, A."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Butler","givenName":"Adam","organisationName":"Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/03jwrz939","role":"author","email":"adam.butler@bioss.ac.uk","fullName":"Butler, A."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Searle","givenName":"Kate","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","fullName":"Searle, K."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Bogdanova","givenName":"Maria","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","fullName":"Bogdanova, M."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Daunt","givenName":"Francis","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","fullName":"Daunt, F."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Fayet","givenName":"Annette L.","organisationName":"Norwegian Institute for Nature Research","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04aha0598","role":"author","email":"annette.fayet@nina.no","fullName":"Fayet, A.L."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Furness","givenName":"Robert","organisationName":"SLR Consulting Limited","role":"author","email":"bob.furness@slrconsulting.com","fullName":"Furness, R."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Reiertsen","givenName":"Tone Kristin","organisationName":"Norwegian Institute for Nature Research","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04aha0598","role":"author","email":"tone.reiertsen@nina.no","fullName":"Reiertsen, T.K."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Skeate","givenName":"Eleanor","organisationName":"ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd.","role":"author","email":"eleanor.skeate@abpmer.co.uk","fullName":"Skeate, E."}],"availability":"Embargoed","boundingBoxes":[{"westBoundLongitude":-3.580,"eastBoundLongitude":3.059,"southBoundLatitude":54.765,"northBoundLatitude":58.404,"bounds":"{\"type\": \"Feature\",      \"properties\": {},      \"geometry\": {        \"type\": \"Polygon\",        \"coordinates\": [[[-3.580, 54.765], [-3.580, 58.404], [3.059, 58.404], [3.059, 54.765], [-3.580, 54.765]]]      }}","coordinates":"[[[-3.580, 54.765], [-3.580, 58.404], [3.059, 58.404], [3.059, 54.765], [-3.580, 54.765]]]"}],"citation":{"authors":["Frantsuzova, A.","Butler, A.","Searle, K.","Bogdanova, M.","Daunt, F.","Fayet, A.L.","Furness, R.","Reiertsen, T.K.","Skeate, E."],"bibtex":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b/citation?format=bib","day":17,"doi":"10.5285/8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b","month":9,"publisher":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","resourceTypeGeneral":"dataset","ris":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b/citation?format=ris","title":"Demographic consequences of potential seabird compensatory measures relating to protected breeding populations in the North Sea, UK, from an expert elicitation exercise","url":"https://doi.org/10.5285/8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b","year":2026},"contactPoints":[{"displayName":"Anastasia Frantsuzova","organisationName":"Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland","role":"pointOfContact","email":"anastasia.frantsuzova@bioss.ac.uk","fullName":"Anastasia Frantsuzova","pointOfContact":"Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland"}],"custodians":[{"organisationName":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04xw4m193","role":"custodian","email":"info@eidc.ac.uk"}],"datasetReferenceDate":{"publicationDate":"2026-09-17","releasedDate":"2026-09-21"},"description":"This dataset contains information about outputs of a video-conference expert elicitation exercise carried out in March 2023 to estimate demographic consequences of potential seabird compensatory measures within the context of protected breeding populations in the North Sea. The outputs comprise of expert judgements from 6 experts given as quantitative values (median, quantiles and range) for the impact of each potential compensation measure on seabird demography (survival and productivity) for a range of species or species groups, and the estimated parameters of a probability distribution fitted using these judgements. The list of measures and species to consider was decided by the experts. The elicitation exercise was organised and carried out by UKCEH and Biomathematics and Statistics, Scotland (BioSS). Distribution fitting was carried out by BioSS. One expert gave incomplete quantitative judgements, which were not included in the final estimation of distribution parameters.\n\nThis work was funded by NERC, The Crown Estate, Crown Estate Scotland and DEFRA  as part of the ECOWINGS project within the ECOWind programme","distributionFormats":[{"name":"Comma-separated values (CSV)","type":"text/csv","version":"unknown"}],"distributorContacts":[{"organisationName":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04xw4m193","role":"distributor","email":"info@eidc.ac.uk"}],"funding":[{"funderName":"Natural Environment Research Council","funderIdentifier":"https://ror.org/02b5d8509","awardTitle":"ECOWINGS grant","awardNumber":"NE/X009068/1","orcid":false,"ror":true}],"hasOnlineServiceAgreement":true,"id":"8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b","incomingCitationCount":0,"inspireThemes":[{"theme":"Habitats and Biotopes","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/theme/hb"}],"keywordsOther":[{"value":"expert elicitation"},{"value":"compensatory measure","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/1636"},{"value":"species conservation","uri":"http://vocabs.lter-europe.net/EnvThes/21668"},{"value":"population viability","uri":"http://vocabs.lter-europe.net/EnvThes/21416"},{"value":"demography","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/2060"},{"value":"conservation management","uri":"http://vocabs.lter-europe.net/EnvThes/20180"},{"value":"mitigation measure","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/5311"},{"value":"ecological compensation"},{"value":"offshore wind farm"},{"value":"black-legged kittiwake"},{"value":"common guillemot"},{"value":"Atlantic puffin"},{"value":"razorbill"},{"value":"northern gannet"}],"keywordsTheme":[{"value":"Modelling","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/13"},{"value":"Environmental risk","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/5"}],"licences":[{"value":"This resource is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence","code":"license","uri":"https://eidc.ac.uk/licences/ogl/plain"}],"lineage":"The dataset consists of two CSV files containing expert judgements and fitted Beta distribution parameters. Values represent expert estimates of the potential change in breeding success and adult survival resulting from compensatory measures at bird colonies.  Expert judgements were collected using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF) through a structured online elicitation process. Six experts were selected based on their expertise, career stage, gender and availability. They provided ranges and quantiles for each scenario, which were discussed within the expert group for internal consistency and physical plausibility. Individual judgements were anonymised and combined by the facilitators after each elicitation round. A Beta distribution was fitted to the judgements for each expert, measure and species. Experts reviewed the resulting distributions and probability curves and could refine their judgements following discussion.\n\nThe main limitations are that results depend on the selection and judgement of the experts and may be affected by cognitive biases, differences in interpretation or group dynamics. The fitted Beta distributions also impose assumptions about the shape of expert beliefs, particularly in the tails, and the available ranges and quantiles provide limited information about the underlying distributions. Consequently, fitted distributions may be sensitive to small changes in the elicited values and may not fully represent expert beliefs. Experts generally considered the Beta distribution to provide a reasonable representation. \n\nQuality control included checks for internal consistency, ensuring quantiles followed a valid order and fell within the specified ranges, and checks that ranges and quantiles were within physically reasonable limits. Overlap between expert ranges and the spread of quantiles were also assessed. Experts received training and example judgements, with facilitator oversight supporting adherence to the elicitation protocol.","metadataDate":"2026-09-17T09:23:56","notGEMINI":false,"publicationDate":"2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z","publishers":[{"organisationName":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04xw4m193","role":"publisher","email":"info@eidc.ac.uk"}],"resourceIdentifiers":[{"code":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b"},{"code":"10.5285/8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b","codeSpace":"doi"}],"resourceType":{"value":"dataset","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/metadata-codelist/ResourceType/dataset"},"rightsHolders":[{"organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"rightsHolder"},{"organisationName":"Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/03jwrz939","role":"rightsHolder"}],"spatialReferenceSystems":[{"code":"https://data.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/datasets/opennames","title":"GB place names"}],"spatialRepresentationTypes":["textTable"],"temporalExtents":[{"begin":"2023-03-01","end":"2023-03-31"}],"title":"Demographic consequences of potential seabird compensatory measures relating to protected breeding populations in the North Sea, UK, from an expert elicitation exercise","topicCategories":[{"value":"environment","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/metadata-codelist/TopicCategory/environment"},{"value":"biota","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/metadata-codelist/TopicCategory/biota"}],"topics":["http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/13","http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/5"],"type":"dataset","uri":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b","useConstraints":[{"value":"This resource is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence","code":"license","uri":"https://eidc.ac.uk/licences/ogl/plain"}]}