PREFIX rdf: PREFIX rdfs: PREFIX skos: PREFIX owl: PREFIX xsd: PREFIX dcterms: PREFIX dcat: PREFIX dcmitype: PREFIX foaf: PREFIX geo: PREFIX prov: PREFIX odrs: PREFIX sosa: PREFIX sdo: PREFIX ef: PREFIX doo: PREFIX adms: PREFIX frapo: PREFIX pro: PREFIX scoro: PREFIX : :8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b dcterms:title "Demographic consequences of potential seabird compensatory measures relating to protected breeding populations in the North Sea, UK, from an expert elicitation exercise" ; dcterms:identifier ; adms:identifier ; dcterms:bibliographicCitation "Frantsuzova, A., Butler, A., Searle, K., Bogdanova, M., Daunt, F., Fayet, A.L., Furness, R., Reiertsen, T.K., Skeate, E. (2026). Demographic consequences of potential seabird compensatory measures relating to protected breeding populations in the North Sea, UK, from an expert elicitation exercise. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b" ; dcterms:description "This dataset contains information about outputs of a video-conference expert elicitation exercise carried out in March 2023 to estimate demographic consequences of potential seabird compensatory measures within the context of protected breeding populations in the North Sea. The outputs comprise of expert judgements from 6 experts given as quantitative values (median, quantiles and range) for the impact of each potential compensation measure on seabird demography (survival and productivity) for a range of species or species groups, and the estimated parameters of a probability distribution fitted using these judgements. The list of measures and species to consider was decided by the experts. The elicitation exercise was organised and carried out by UKCEH and Biomathematics and Statistics, Scotland (BioSS). Distribution fitting was carried out by BioSS. One expert gave incomplete quantitative judgements, which were not included in the final estimation of distribution parameters. This work was funded by NERC, The Crown Estate, Crown Estate Scotland and DEFRA as part of the ECOWINGS project within the ECOWind programme" ; dcterms:provenance [ a dcterms:ProvenanceStatement ; rdfs:label "The dataset consists of two CSV files containing expert judgements and fitted Beta distribution parameters. Values represent expert estimates of the potential change in breeding success and adult survival resulting from compensatory measures at bird colonies. Expert judgements were collected using the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF) through a structured online elicitation process. Six experts were selected based on their expertise, career stage, gender and availability. They provided ranges and quantiles for each scenario, which were discussed within the expert group for internal consistency and physical plausibility. Individual judgements were anonymised and combined by the facilitators after each elicitation round. A Beta distribution was fitted to the judgements for each expert, measure and species. Experts reviewed the resulting distributions and probability curves and could refine their judgements following discussion. The main limitations are that results depend on the selection and judgement of the experts and may be affected by cognitive biases, differences in interpretation or group dynamics. The fitted Beta distributions also impose assumptions about the shape of expert beliefs, particularly in the tails, and the available ranges and quantiles provide limited information about the underlying distributions. Consequently, fitted distributions may be sensitive to small changes in the elicited values and may not fully represent expert beliefs. Experts generally considered the Beta distribution to provide a reasonable representation. Quality control included checks for internal consistency, ensuring quantiles followed a valid order and fell within the specified ranges, and checks that ranges and quantiles were within physically reasonable limits. Overlap between expert ranges and the spread of quantiles were also assessed. Experts received training and example judgements, with facilitator oversight supporting adherence to the elicitation protocol." ] ; dcterms:spatial [ a dcterms:Location ; dcat:bbox "POLYGON((-3.580 54.765, -3.580 58.404, 3.059 58.404, 3.059 54.765, -3.580 54.765))"^^geo:wktLiteral ; ] ; dcterms:temporal [ a dcterms:PeriodOfTime ; dcat:startDate "2023-03-01"^^xsd:date ; dcat:endDate "2023-03-31"^^xsd:date ; ] ; dcat:contactPoint :person_8576f1f4ec22ec8e ; dcterms:publisher ; dcterms:subject , , "expert elicitation", , , , , , , "ecological compensation", "offshore wind farm", "black-legged kittiwake", "common guillemot", "Atlantic puffin", "razorbill", "northern gannet" ; prov:wasGeneratedBy :grant_bd0f84f90662bf31 ; a dcat:Dataset; dcterms:type dcmitype:Dataset ; dcterms:available "2026-09-17"^^xsd:date ; dcat:landingPage , ; dcterms:license ; dcterms:accessRights ; dcterms:theme , ; dcterms:creator :person_78953dc1bf0ce336,:person_3fb6d08a1c40b365,:person_528ac788aa8091e7,:person_94f4e03a67f8d3a8,:person_aa5959506cf568cf,:person_9545c4fa70118dd5,:person_2297d190092676b1,:person_82130264387e6649,:person_bb91ada51d8016da ; dcterms:language . :person_8576f1f4ec22ec8e a foaf:Person ; foaf:name "Anastasia Frantsuzova" ; foaf:member :organisation_381b67736544df49 ; . :organisation_381b67736544df49 a foaf:Organization ; foaf:name "Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland" . a foaf:Organization ; . :person_78953dc1bf0ce336 a foaf:Person ; foaf:name "Frantsuzova, A." ; foaf:familyName "Frantsuzova" ; foaf:givenName "Anastasia" ; foaf:member ; . :person_78953dc1bf0ce336 pro:holdsRoleInTime :role_b54f34a927f40f83 . :role_b54f34a927f40f83 a pro:RoleInTime ; pro:withRole pro:author ; pro:relatesToEntity :8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b . :person_3fb6d08a1c40b365 a foaf:Person ; foaf:name "Butler, A." ; foaf:familyName "Butler" ; foaf:givenName "Adam" ; foaf:member ; . :person_3fb6d08a1c40b365 pro:holdsRoleInTime :role_4d6d0f8a92889946 . :role_4d6d0f8a92889946 a pro:RoleInTime ; pro:withRole pro:author ; pro:relatesToEntity :8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b . :person_528ac788aa8091e7 a foaf:Person ; foaf:name "Searle, K." ; 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foaf:familyName "Fayet" ; foaf:givenName "Annette L." ; foaf:member ; . :person_9545c4fa70118dd5 pro:holdsRoleInTime :role_399b5b6ee4abc242 . :role_399b5b6ee4abc242 a pro:RoleInTime ; pro:withRole pro:author ; pro:relatesToEntity :8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b . :person_2297d190092676b1 a foaf:Person ; foaf:name "Furness, R." ; foaf:familyName "Furness" ; foaf:givenName "Robert" ; foaf:member :organisation_c221858959c9a2fe ; . :organisation_c221858959c9a2fe a foaf:Organization ; foaf:name "SLR Consulting Limited" . :person_2297d190092676b1 pro:holdsRoleInTime :role_e0a29611230b34b4 . :role_e0a29611230b34b4 a pro:RoleInTime ; pro:withRole pro:author ; pro:relatesToEntity :8847e78c-8778-474b-b2a2-3931beeb0e1b . :person_82130264387e6649 a foaf:Person ; foaf:name "Reiertsen, T.K." ; foaf:familyName "Reiertsen" ; foaf:givenName "Tone Kristin" ; foaf:member ; . :person_82130264387e6649 pro:holdsRoleInTime :role_95a9de7fe0814fbf . :role_95a9de7fe0814fbf a pro:RoleInTime ; pro:withRole pro:author ; 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