Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora pluvialis infection of Douglas fir and western hemlock in Scotland
bibliographic citation: Barwell, L.J., Turvey, K., Amankwaa, G., Asaaga, F., Cooke, D.E.L., Mitchell, R., Purse, B.V. (2025). Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora pluvialis infection of Douglas fir and western hemlock in Scotland. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/921fcc2e-7491-4058-a21b-3d1de0be1507
description: This dataset maps the risks of Phytophthora pluvialis infection for 11098 forest fragments in Scotland identified as containing the known hosts Douglas fir or western hemlock. Key risk factors and their scoring were agreed with 15 cross-sectoral stakeholders through a self-completion survey and two workshops. Fragment risk scores integrate climate suitability and proximity to other fragments/infected sites, recent planting of these hosts (forestry grant schemes), inspected premises and water courses. Infections of P. pluvialis have been reported on Douglas fir and Western hemlock in Cornwall, Devon, Cumbria, Wales and Scotland since the outbreak was first detected in 2021. Outside of the UK, pine species (Pinus radiata, P. strobus, P. patula) are also susceptible to the pathogen. The scored fragment data were intersected with the boundaries of conservancies, local authorities and active P. pluvialis demarcated areas to summarise the distribution of risks across regions in Scotland.
provenance: ProvenanceStatement
  label: We employed an iterative and collaborative co-production process that brought together stakeholders with diverse expertise from across Scotland’s plant health sector including forestry, conservation, horticulture, and government agencies. The distributions of Douglas fir and western hemlock fragments in Scotland were mapped using the National Forest Estate Subcompartments 2019 and the Native Woodland Survey of Scotland. This was supplemented with Scottish Forestry Phytophthora surveillance data and Statutory Plant Health Notices (SPHNs) since 2013 and detections on Douglas fir or western hemlock in a global Phytophthora database. Felled areas since 2013 were removed using the National Forest Inventory. Key risk factors and their scoring were agreed with 15 cross-sectoral stakeholders through a self-completion survey and two workshops. The consensus among workshop participants was for climate suitability to be the primary risk factor. The final report was peer reviewed by the Plant Health Centre. In addition, a knowledge integration and validation workshop (November 13, 2024) examined the adequacy of the outputs for horizon scanning and decision-making across sectors. Validation of the climate suitability models for other Phytophthora species has been attempted using independent UK and European detections.
spatial: Location
publisher: NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
subject: Scotland
subject: Environmental risk
subject: exotic species
subject: forestry
subject: habitat
subject: pathogenic organism
subject: pest
subject: phytopathology
subject: risk assessment
subject: western hemlock
subject: Phytophthora pluvialis
subject: Pseudotsuga menziesii
subject: Tsuga heterophylla
subject: Douglas fir
was generated by: Learning to adapt to an uncertain future: linking genes, trees, people and processes for more resilient treescapes (newLEAF)
was generated by: Improved preparedness for Phytophthora prevention in Scotland
was generated by: Mitigating threats from Phytophthora
type: Dataset
available: 2025-10-22
landing page: https://doi.org/10.5285/921fcc2e-7491-4058-a21b-3d1de0be1507
license: OGL-UK-3.0.ttl
access rights: UNRS
theme: Environmental risk
distribution:
  access URL: https://data-package.ceh.ac.uk/data/921fcc2e-7491-4058-a21b-3d1de0be1507
  license: OGL-UK-3.0.ttl
  access rights: UNRS
  format: TIFF
  format: GeoPackage
creator: Barwell, L.J.
creator: Turvey, K.
creator: Amankwaa, G.
creator: Asaaga, F.
creator: Cooke, D.E.L.
creator: Mitchell, R.
creator: Purse, B.V.
language: en

Louise Barwell
type: Person
member: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
type: Organization

Barwell, L.J.
type: Person
family name: Barwell
given name: L. J.
member: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Turvey, K.
type: Person
family name: Turvey
given name: K.
member: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Amankwaa, G.
type: Person
family name: Amankwaa
given name: G.
member: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Asaaga, F.
type: Person
family name: Asaaga
given name: F.
member: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Cooke, D.E.L.
type: Person
family name: Cooke
given name: D. E. L.
member: James Hutton Institute

Mitchell, R.
type: Person
family name: Mitchell
given name: R.
member: James Hutton Institute

Purse, B.V.
type: Person
family name: Purse
given name: B. V.
member: UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Environmental risk
type: Concept

exotic species
type: Concept

forestry
type: Concept

habitat
type: Concept

pathogenic organism
type: Concept

pest
type: Concept

phytopathology
type: Concept

risk assessment
type: Concept

Phytophthora pluvialis
type: Concept

Pseudotsuga menziesii
type: Concept

Tsuga heterophylla
type: Concept

UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
type: Organization

James Hutton Institute
type: Organization

Learning to adapt to an uncertain future: linking genes, trees, people and processes for more resilient treescapes (newLEAF)
type: Activity

Improved preparedness for Phytophthora prevention in Scotland
type: Activity

Mitigating threats from Phytophthora
type: Activity