{"accessLimitation":{"value":"embargoed","availability":"Embargoed","description":"Access to the resource is restricted until a specified date or the occurrence of a defined condition, after which access may be granted in accordance with applicable policies or licensing conditions","uri":"http://vocab.nerc.ac.uk/collection/N07/current/EMBG/"},"authors":[{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Redhead","givenName":"John W.","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","nameIdentifier":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2233-3848","fullName":"Redhead, J.W."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Thomson","givenName":"Amanda","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","nameIdentifier":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7306-4545","fullName":"Thomson, A."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Clilverd","givenName":"Hannah","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","nameIdentifier":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6771-3302","fullName":"Clilverd, H."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Goodwin","givenName":"Cecily","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","nameIdentifier":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0093-9838","fullName":"Goodwin, C."},{"honorificPrefix":"Mr","familyName":"Serra Gallego","givenName":"Josep","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","fullName":"Serra Gallego, J."},{"honorificPrefix":"Miss","familyName":"Upcott","givenName":"Emily V","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","nameIdentifier":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1133-3102","fullName":"Upcott, E.V."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Young","givenName":"Hannah","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","nameIdentifier":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7997-9471","fullName":"Young, H."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Beauchamp","givenName":"Kate","organisationName":"Forest Research","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/03wcc3744","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","fullName":"Beauchamp, K."},{"honorificPrefix":"Ms","familyName":"Ballinger","givenName":"Ann","organisationName":"Eunomia Research and Consulting","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","fullName":"Ballinger, A."},{"honorificPrefix":"Ms","familyName":"Molteno","givenName":"Star","organisationName":"Eunomia Research and Consulting","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","fullName":"Molteno, S."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Silvestri","givenName":"Alessandro","organisationName":"University of Exeter","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/03yghzc09","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","nameIdentifier":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5630-8720","fullName":"Silvestri, A."},{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Malcolm","givenName":"Heath","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"author","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","nameIdentifier":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7662-8887","fullName":"Malcolm, H."}],"availability":"Embargoed","boundingBoxes":[{"westBoundLongitude":-8.648,"eastBoundLongitude":1.768,"southBoundLatitude":49.864,"northBoundLatitude":60.861,"bounds":"{\"type\": \"Feature\",      \"properties\": {},      \"geometry\": {        \"type\": \"Polygon\",        \"coordinates\": [[[-8.648, 49.864], [-8.648, 60.861], [1.768, 60.861], [1.768, 49.864], [-8.648, 49.864]]]      }}","coordinates":"[[[-8.648, 49.864], [-8.648, 60.861], [1.768, 60.861], [1.768, 49.864], [-8.648, 49.864]]]"}],"citation":{"authors":["Redhead, J.W.","Thomson, A.","Clilverd, H.","Goodwin, C.","Serra Gallego, J.","Upcott, E.V.","Young, H.","Beauchamp, K.","Ballinger, A.","Molteno, S.","Silvestri, A.","Malcolm, H."],"bibtex":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d/citation?format=bib","day":16,"doi":"10.5285/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d","month":7,"publisher":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","resourceTypeGeneral":"dataset","ris":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/documents/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d/citation?format=ris","title":"Mapped land use, land cover and environmental impacts of multiple UK-extent pathways towards Net Zero by 2050","url":"https://doi.org/10.5285/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d","year":2026},"contactPoints":[{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Redhead","givenName":"John","organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"pointOfContact","email":"enquiries@ceh.ac.uk","fullName":"Redhead, J.","pointOfContact":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology"}],"custodians":[{"organisationName":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04xw4m193","role":"custodian","email":"info@eidc.ac.uk"}],"datasetReferenceDate":{"publicationDate":"2026-07-16","releasedDate":"2026-10-30"},"description":"This dataset comprises spatially explicit, modelled outcomes of multiple alternative pathways towards the UK Government's legally binding target of achieving Net Zero in territorial emissions by 2050. These pathways relate specifically to changes in the UK's agriculture, land use and forestry sectors that might contribute towards this target. This dataset includes UK-extent maps of changes in land use, land cover and land management under each pathway, along with modelled spatial data on a range of indicators quantifying environmental impacts on greenhouse gas abatement, soils, water and biodiversity. All data are tiff format rasters at UK extent, mostly at 1 km resolution, and show outcomes for a nominal baseline of 2024 and 3 future time slices (2030, 2042 and 2050).\nA variety of rule-based, process-based and statistical models were used to create these outputs. Each pathway represents a hypothetical but plausible trajectory of change for the agriculture, land use and forestry sectors, made up of multiple measures that contribute to emissions reductions and increased sequestration. The pathways are exploratory, using contrasting measures and levels of uptake. These modelled data are therefore not predictions, but instead aim to provide insight into what is plausible and probable, facilitate exploration of synergies and trade-offs between progress toward Net Zero and environmental impacts, and ultimately support decision making around viable routes for achieving policy objectives. \nThese data were created under the Land Climate Programme (LCP), a project jointly funded by DESNZ and DEFRA and delivered by a consortium including UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Eunomia Research and Consulting Ltd, Exeter University, the Met Office and Forest Research. The finer-resolution data were created with resources under the NERC-funded DRUID project.","distributionFormats":[{"name":"TIFF","type":"image/tiff","version":"unknown"}],"distributorContacts":[{"organisationName":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04xw4m193","role":"distributor","email":"info@eidc.ac.uk"}],"funding":[{"funderName":"Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs","funderIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00tnppw48","awardTitle":"Land Climate Programme","orcid":false,"ror":true},{"funderName":"Natural Environment Research Council","funderIdentifier":"https://ror.org/02b5d8509","awardTitle":"DRUID","orcid":false,"ror":true}],"hasOnlineServiceAgreement":true,"id":"ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d","incomingCitationCount":0,"inspireThemes":[{"theme":"Land Cover","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/theme/lc"},{"theme":"Land Use","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/theme/lu"},{"theme":"Agricultural and Aquaculture Facilities","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/theme/af"}],"keywordsOther":[{"value":"environment","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/2944"},{"value":"greenhouse gas emissions","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/15192"},{"value":"livestock","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/4862"},{"value":"net zero carbon","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/15380"}],"keywordsTheme":[{"value":"Agriculture","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/1"},{"value":"Climate and climate change","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/4"},{"value":"Ecosystem services","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/6"},{"value":"Land cover","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/11"},{"value":"Land use","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/12"},{"value":"Mapping","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/18"},{"value":"Modelling","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/13"}],"licences":[{"value":"non-commercial use (see https://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/licences/lcm-raster)","code":"license"}],"lineage":"The data were created by a variety of spatial modelling approaches. \nTo produce the Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) datasets, changes derived from the underlying narrative behind each pathway were spatially allocated, transforming a baseline map of land cover, crop or livestock distribution (baselines drawn from existing spatial datasets of surveys) into one showing a new map of the relevant LULC variable under each pathway and future time slice. The primary model used to perform this spatial allocation was the SAMSEn model developed by UKCEH, which relies on using a series of spatial attractors (which make a given change more likely in a particular location) and constraints (which prevent a given change from occurring in a particular location) to allocate change  and simulate competition between land uses in a spatially plausible way. Environmental impact data were modelled using a variety of rule-based, process-based and statistical models, which were parameterised and run independently.\nAll data underwent a variety of internal QA processes, including automated checking that models were producing expected outputs (in terms of quantity of LULC change). Model outputs were reviewed by multiple members of the project team, checking visually and analytically to detect unexpected spatial patterns or values. These data have also undergone external review by the project funders. However, it is important to note that all these data represent simulations of hypothetical outcomes of possible pathways towards Net Zero at UK scale, and so are not indented to predict actual future changes nor to give a high level of accuracy or precision, especially in terms of individual cell values.","metadataDate":"2026-07-25T14:04:07","notGEMINI":false,"publicationDate":"2026-07-16T00:00:00.000Z","publishers":[{"organisationName":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04xw4m193","role":"publisher","email":"info@eidc.ac.uk"}],"resourceIdentifiers":[{"code":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d"},{"code":"10.5285/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d","codeSpace":"doi"}],"resourceType":{"value":"dataset"},"rightsHolders":[{"organisationName":"UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/00pggkr55","role":"rightsHolder"}],"spatialReferenceSystems":[{"code":"http://www.opengis.net/def/crs/EPSG/0/27700","title":"OSGB 1936 / British National Grid"}],"spatialRepresentationTypes":["grid"],"spatialResolutions":[{"distance":"1000","uom":"urn:ogc:def:uom:EPSG::9001"}],"temporalExtents":[{"begin":"2024-01-01","end":"2050-12-31"}],"title":"Mapped land use, land cover and environmental impacts of multiple UK-extent pathways towards Net Zero by 2050","topicCategories":[{"value":"environment","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/metadata-codelist/TopicCategory/environment"},{"value":"farming","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/metadata-codelist/TopicCategory/farming"}],"topics":["http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/1","http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/4","http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/6","http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/11","http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/12","http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/18","http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/13"],"type":"dataset","uri":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/id/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d","useConstraints":[{"value":"non-commercial use (see https://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/licences/lcm-raster)","code":"license"}]}