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The dataset is model output from the DECIPHeR hydrological model driven by observed climate data (CEH-GEAR rainfall and CHESS-PE potential evapotranspiration).  The modelled catchments correspond to locations of National River Flow Archive (NRFA) gauging stations and provide good spatial coverage across the UK.\n\nThe dataset was produced as part of MaRIUS (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity) to provide national scale probabilistic flow simulations and predictions for UK drought risk analysis.  MaRIUS was a UK NERC-funded research project (2014-2017) that developed a risk-based approach to drought and water scarcity.","distributionFormats":[{"name":"Comma-separated values (CSV)","type":"text/csv","version":"unknown"}],"distributorContacts":[{"organisationName":"NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre","organisationIdentifier":"https://ror.org/04xw4m193","role":"distributor","email":"info@eidc.ac.uk"}],"funding":[{"funderName":"Natural Environment Research Council","funderIdentifier":"https://ror.org/02b5d8509","awardTitle":"Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity (MaRIUS)","awardNumber":"NE/L010399/1","awardURI":"https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL010399%2F1","orcid":false,"ror":true}],"id":"d770b12a-3824-4e40-8da1-930cf9470858","incomingCitationCount":1,"incomingCitations":[{"description":"Hooftman, D.A.P., Bullock, J.M., Jones, L., Eigenbrod, F., Barredo, J.I., Forrest, M., Kindermann, G., Thomas, A., & Willcock, S. (2022). Reducing uncertainty in ecosystem service modelling through weighted ensembles. Ecosystem Services, 53, 101398.","url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2021.101398"}],"infoLinks":[{"url":"https://data-package.ceh.ac.uk/sd/d770b12a-3824-4e40-8da1-930cf9470858.zip","name":"Supporting information","description":"Supporting information available to assist in re-use of this dataset","function":"information","type":"OTHER"}],"inspireThemes":[{"theme":"Hydrography","uri":"http://inspire.ec.europa.eu/theme/hy"}],"keywordsOther":[{"value":"DECIPHeR"},{"value":"Uncertainty"},{"value":"flow","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/3311"},{"value":"drought","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/2347"},{"value":"river","uri":"http://www.eionet.europa.eu/gemet/concept/7244"}],"keywordsPlace":[{"value":"Great Britain"}],"keywordsProject":[{"value":"MaRIUS (Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of drought and water Scarcity)"}],"keywordsTheme":[{"value":"Hydrology","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/9"},{"value":"Modelling","uri":"http://onto.nerc.ac.uk/CEHMD/topic/13"}],"licences":[{"value":"This resource is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence","code":"license","uri":"https://eidc.ac.uk/licences/ogl/plain"}],"lineage":"The modelled flow data are output from the DECIPHeR hydrological model (Coxon et al, 2019; https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2285-2019).   The meteorological inputs to the model were rainfall from CEH-GEAR (Tanguy et al. 2016; https://doi.org10.5285/33604ea0-c238-4488-813d-0ad9ab7c51ca) and CHESS-PE (Robinson et al, 2016; https://doi.org/10.5285/8baf805d-39ce-4dac-b224-c926ada353b7).\n\nDECIPHeR (V1) was run from 1961-2015 using 100,000 monte carlo model parameter sets.  Model performance was evaluated over a 54 year timeseries (1962-2015) using a multi-objective approach comprising four evaluation metrics.  The evaluation metrics were chosen to quantify the model’s ability to capture a range of hydrologic behaviour including maintaining overall water balance, capturing flow variability, reproducing low and high flows and the timing of flows.  \n\nThe top ‘multi-objective’ scoring 100 model simulations for each of the 1,366 gauges are supplied as daily river flow timeseries.  Metadata comprising the model parameters and performance for the 100 ensemble members is also supplied to allow the user to interrogate the performance of the model and assist in the interpretation of the results.\n\nSee supporting information document for more details.","metadataDate":"2026-06-27T19:17:30","notGEMINI":false,"onlineResources":[{"url":"https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/datastore/eidchub/d770b12a-3824-4e40-8da1-930cf9470858","name":"Download the data","description":"Download a copy of this data","function":"fileAccess","type":"OTHER"},{"url":"https://data-package.ceh.ac.uk/sd/d770b12a-3824-4e40-8da1-930cf9470858.zip","name":"Supporting information","description":"Supporting information available to assist in re-use of this dataset","function":"information","type":"OTHER"}],"pointsOfContact":[{"honorificPrefix":"Dr","familyName":"Coxon","givenName":"Gemma","organisationName":"University of 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