Small, N.; Prosser, H.; Durance, I.

Predicted outcomes from land use change scenarios in upland Wales catchments

A spatial approach was developed to interpret qualitatively expressed scenarios, and predict the probability and amount of change for 10 land-cover types across 127 sub-catchments in upland Wales. Existing data, which have a temporal coverage of 1998-2007, were used for the underpinning mapping, and fed into the tabular land cover change summary data. For each scenario, the maximum and minimum land-cover change was projected using rules based on current land cover, agricultural land quality, ownership type, and nature conservation status. For each combination, total land-cover change summaries have been created, which indicate how land cover within the 127 sub-catchments may respond to change in the future. This work was part of the Diversity in Upland River Ecosystem Service Sustainability (DURESS) project, NERC grant NE/J014826/1.

Publication date: 2017-02-28

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Supporting documentation

Format of the dataset : Comma-separated values (CSV)

Access and use conditions

This resource is made available under the terms of the Open Government Licence

You must cite: Small, N.; Prosser, H.; Durance, I. (2017). Predicted outcomes from land use change scenarios in upland Wales catchments. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre.


© NERC and Cardiff University


Study area
Temporal extent
2014-07-01    to    2015-12-01

Supplemental information

Provenance & quality

Existing spatial datasets were collected and used to predict the maximum and minimum outcomes for land use change scenarios. These data include the 25 x 25m Land Cover Map 2007 raster, which was aggregated to 13 classes (see supporting documentation). The Agricultural Land Classification (ALC), designated boundary, and ownership data were also used. Using GIS, sub-catchment boundaries were used to clip the land cover, agricultural land quality, ownership, and designated sites data. Following this, two separate polygon layers were built to represent maximum (using land-cover and ALC data), and minimum (land-cover, ALC, plus additional datasets representing protected areas and areas of ownership) change. These were created by using the 'union' process in ArcGIS.
A unique identifier was created in the polygon layers, and in each rule-base. The purpose of this unique identifier was to help match all attributes in the data and rule-base and join them together. In ArcGIS, calculations such as land cover area, land cover area percent, and net change (before and after scenario was applied) were made. Due to multiple land cover, ALC, designation and protected area permutations, a final summary was needed to illustrate by how much land cover changed under the different scenarios. Therefore, in Excel, each land cover in each sub-catchment was summarised and a total area before and after scenario was calculated. These values were exported into Excel spreadsheets and then into comma separated values for ingestion into the EIDC.

Correspondence/contact details

Small, N.
Cardiff University


Small, N.
Cardiff University
Prosser, H.
Cardiff University
Durance, I.
Cardiff University

Other contacts

Environmental Information Data Centre
NERC Environmental Information Data Centre


Spatial reference system
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid


Topic categories
Environment , Economy , Health , Inland Waters
Land Cover
Biodiversity & Ecosystem Service Sustainability (BESS),  catchments,  Diversity in Upland River Ecosystem Service Sustainability (DURESS),  land-cover,  scenarios,  uplands