Hollaway, M.J.
Fuzzy changepoint application to evaluate numerical model ability to capture important shifts in environmental time series
Cite this model code as:
Hollaway, M.J. (2021). Fuzzy changepoint application to evaluate numerical model ability to capture important shifts in environmental time series. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/49d04d55-90a7-4106-b8fe-2e75aba228e4
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Publication of this model code by the EIDC does not signify any endorsement or approval. By accessing and using the resource, you acknowledge that it is entirely at your own risk and you are solely responsible for any loss or liability that may arise
This model code is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence
https://doi.org/10.5285/49d04d55-90a7-4106-b8fe-2e75aba228e4
This application is an implementation of a Fuzzy changepoint based approach to evaluate how well numerical models capture local scale temporal shifts in environmental time series. A changepoint in a time series represents a change in the statistical properties of the time series (either mean, variance or mean and variance in this case). These can often represent important local events of interest that numerical models should accurately capture. The application detects the locations of changepoints in two time series (typically one representing observations and one representing a model simulation) and estimates uncertainty on the changepoint locations using a bootstrap approach. The changepoint locations and associated confidence intervals are then converted to fuzzy numbers and fuzzy logic is used to evaluate how well the timing of any changepoints agree between the time series. The app returns individual similarity scores for each changepoint with higher scores representing a better performance of the numerical model at capturing local scale temporal changes seen in the observed record.
To use this application, the user will upload a csv file containing the two time series to be compared.
This work was supported by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Data Science for the Natural Environment (DSNE) project (EP/R01860X/1) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part the UK-SCAPE programme (NE/R016429/1).
To use this application, the user will upload a csv file containing the two time series to be compared.
This work was supported by Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) Data Science for the Natural Environment (DSNE) project (EP/R01860X/1) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part the UK-SCAPE programme (NE/R016429/1).
Publication date: 2021-03-01
View numbers valid from 01 June 2023 Download numbers valid from 20 June 2024 (information prior to this was not collected)
Format
R
Provenance & quality
This application comprises the source code of an R Shiny app (app.R) that implements the method described in https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993. The application also provides access to the standalone functions used to execute the analysis (Fuzzy_CPT_functions.R). It can be run on any machine with R and the required packages installed. It has been tested up to R version 3.6.1 with more testing information and package dependencies found in Session_info.txt.
Licensing and constraints
This model code is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence
Cite this model code as:
Hollaway, M.J. (2021). Fuzzy changepoint application to evaluate numerical model ability to capture important shifts in environmental time series. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/49d04d55-90a7-4106-b8fe-2e75aba228e4
Citations
Hollaway, M.J.; Henrys, P.A.; Killick, R.; Leeson, A.; Watkins, J. (2021). Evaluating the ability of numerical models to capture important shifts in environmental time series: A Fuzzy change point approach. Environmental Modelling & Software. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.104993
Correspondence/contact details
Dr Michael Hollaway
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg
Lancaster
Lancashire
LA1 4AP
UNITED KINGDOM
enquiries@ceh.ac.uk
Lancaster
Lancashire
LA1 4AP
UNITED KINGDOM
Author
Other contacts
Rights holder
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Custodian
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
info@eidc.ac.uk
Publisher
NERC Environmental Information Data Centre
info@eidc.ac.uk
Additional metadata
Keywords
Changepoints , Data analytics , Data science , Evaluation framework , Fuzzy logic , UK-SCAPE , UK Status, Change and Projections of the Environment , Uncertainty
Funding
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Award: EP/R01860X/1
Natural Environment Research Council Award: NE/R016429/1
Natural Environment Research Council Award: NE/R016429/1
Last updated
08 February 2024 17:25