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Milne, A.; Alonso Chavez, V.; Brown, N. ; Parnell, S.

Simulations of Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) spread in Great Britain with optimised surveillance

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This dataset is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence

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https://doi.org/10.5285/6209742a-bfd6-4fbc-9b40-29d7d75d57b4
This dataset contains a model, input data and outputs of the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB; Agrilus planipennis) lifecycle and spread across Great Britain. Nine different scenarios are considered related to how certain we are that EAB will arrive through known pathways related to wood imports (70%, 50%, 30%) and the probability that EAB would escape at port rather than at the onwards depots (25%, 50%, 75%).

The model outputs can be used to predict the best places to locate surveillance technologies (i.e., girdled trees or traps) and included in this dataset are optimised trap locations for 27 scenarios (three trapping types for each of the nine different scenarios).
Publication date: 2024-02-27
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More information

View numbers valid from 27 February 2024 Download numbers valid from 20 June 2024 (information prior to this was not collected)

Formats

CPP, Comma-separated values (CSV), Text file (.txt), Header file (.h)

Spatial information

Study area
Spatial representation type
Tabular (text)
Spatial reference system
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid

Provenance & quality

The model requires the entry point to be initialized. We developed maps to identify the most likely first incursion point at locations across Great Britain on a 1km x 1km grid. These maps were informed by data from the forestry commission on likely entry points, and data on firewood use. When creating these maps, we considered nine scenarios related to how certain we are that EAB will arrive through known pathways related to wood imports (70%, 50%, 30%) and the probability that EAB would escape at port rather than at the onwards depots (25%, 50%, 75%). For each scenario we sampled 10000 realizations for likely entry points. These form the inputs to our model.

The model is set up to run for annual time steps for 8 years. For each simulated year the larval density and tree health is recorded in infested cells and reported in output files. The model is currently set up to do this for up to 10000 realizations of entry point. The data in the output file can then be used to optimize surveillance. We did this using simulated annealing for three trapping types (Girdled, sticky straps and under bark sampling) in the nine different scenarios.

The model code was developed in Visual Studio, but plain text files have been provided so that the code can be compiled and run outside of Visual Studio. The model code was checked for errors and the outputs were validated, as far as possible, against spread characteristics from the US.

Licensing and constraints

This dataset is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence

Cite this dataset as:
Milne, A.; Alonso Chavez, V.; Brown, N. ; Parnell, S. (2024). Simulations of Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) spread in Great Britain with optimised surveillance. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/6209742a-bfd6-4fbc-9b40-29d7d75d57b4

Correspondence/contact details

Milne, A.
Rothamsted Research
 alice.milne@rothamsted.ac.uk

Authors

Milne, A.
Rothamsted Research
Alonso Chavez, V.
Rothamsted Research
Parnell, S.
University of Warwick

Other contacts

Rights holder
Rothamsted Research
Custodian
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
 info@eidc.ac.uk
Publisher
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
 info@eidc.ac.uk

Additional metadata

Topic categories
environment
INSPIRE theme
Environmental Monitoring Facilities
Keywords
Agrilus planipennis , Great Britain , Invasive species , optimal sampling locations , simulated spread , trade activity
Funding
Natural Environment Research Council Award: NE/T007729/1
Last updated
05 November 2024 12:24