Cameron, D.R. ; Levy, P.E.

UK maps representing baseline uncertainty in CO2 and CH4 fluxes

This dataset provides UK maps of baseline prior uncertainty (UQ) in fluxes of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide, CO2 (2014-15) and methane, CH4 (2015). Spatial maps of these GHG emissions are produced annually in the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) but it is important to quantify uncertainty in these maps. These uncertainty estimates come from sectoral uncertainty data provided by the NAEI. Here, we propagate the uncertainty in the maps for each of the sectors contributing to the emissions using a Monte Carlo method, in order to quantify the uncertainty in the total emissions spatially.

The Monte Carlo method employed here uses a novel approach (Nearest Neighbour Gaussian Process) to make calculations computationally affordable. These estimate the influence on the overall uncertainty of unknown errors in the model structure. Further details of the methodology used here can be found in the supporting documentation included with this data.

In the near term, this methodology will be used and developed further in the NERC-funded project, DARE-UK (NE/S003614/1), to update UQ in maps of CO2 and CH4 for the UK. For that work and in general, it is useful to have a baseline prior uncertainty quantification against which future UK maps of uncertainty in CO2 and CH4 fluxes can be compared.

Publication date: 2020-12-18

Get the data

This dataset is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence

Format of the data: TIFF

You must cite: Cameron, D.R. ; Levy, P.E. (2020). UK maps representing baseline uncertainty in CO2 and CH4 fluxes. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/739c65a5-12c0-439b-bbcd-1252a4086e87

 

Where/When

Study area
Temporal extent
2014-03-01    to    2015-12-31

Provenance & quality

The steps involved in creating this data were as follows:
1) Maps of emissions of CO2 and CH4 for each sector for years 2014/15 (CO2) 2015 (CH4) and contributing to the total emissions were obtained from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI).
2) Prior uncertainty in the maps for each sector was estimated based on NAEI guidance (https://naei.beis.gov.uk/resources/Sector_Summary_Factsheet_2018-v1.html#5_uncertainties CO2) and (https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/empire/naei/ipcc/uncertainty/tables.html)
3) Uncertainty in the maps for each of the sectors were propagated using a Monte Carlo method to quantify the uncertainty in the total emissions spatially.

Full details of the Monte Carlo methodology used can be found in the supporting documentation.

Uncertainty maps:
There are three maps (5th, 50th and 95th quantiles) for each of CO2 and CH4 representing the baseline prior uncertainty spatially in the emissions.

Dates:
The annual maps provided here are for:

- March 2014 to Feb 2015 (CO2)
- Jan 2015 to Dec 2015 (CH4)

Units:
The units of CO2 fluxes in the data submission are micro mol per metre squared per second. The units of CH4 fluxes are nano mol per metre squared per second.

Correspondence/contact details

Cameron, D.R.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Bush Estate
Penicuik
Midlothian
EH26 0QB
UNITED KINGDOM
 enquiries@ceh.ac.uk

Authors

Cameron, D.R.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Levy, P.E.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology

Other contacts

Custodian
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
 info@eidc.ac.uk
Publisher
NERC Environmental Information Data Centre
 info@eidc.ac.uk
Rights Holder
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
 enquiries@ceh.ac.uk

Additional metadata

Topic categories
Environment , Climatology / Meteorology / Atmosphere , Geoscientific Information
Keywords
Climate and climate change
INSPIRE Theme
Atmospheric Conditions
Funding
Natural Environment Research Council Award: NE/R016429/1
Spatial representation type
Raster
Spatial reference system
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid
Last updated
25 June 2021 18:44