Identifying potential tipping points in the benefits derived from the UK's land ecosystems
This series contains modelled climate and agricultural land use data. Climate change is expected to impact vegetation including agricultural land-use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land use changes. Model output data for Great Britain from a land surface model JULES and an econometric agricultural land use model is provided, which was used to assess the impact unmitigated climate change has on vegetation productivity and land use by the end of the century. Additionally, JULES output based on the UKCP09 climate projections showcasing potential abrupt shifts/tipping points in vegetation carbon. Finally, arable land use data is also provided for four scenarios that combine either climate change alone or with a high-impact climate tipping point - collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), plus the ability for farmers to irrigate or not. This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council award number NE/P007880/1 as part of the project 'Identifying potential tipping points in the benefits derived from the UK's land ecosystems'.
This data collection contains these resources
Modelled arable area, net primary productivity, runoff, irrigation demand for Great Britain 1998-2008 and 2100 under high-end climate change
Modelled arable area for Great Britain under different climate and policy scenarios
Modelled vegetation carbon, temperature and rainfall for Great Britain 1997-2099 under four climate and CO2 scenarios