This data contains the time series flow discharge results of hydrological simulation of the River Trent at Colwick using UKCP09 Weather Generator inputs for a variety of time slices and emissions scenarios. The Weather Generator (WG) inputs were run on a hydrological model (Leathard et al., unpublished), calibrated using the observed record 1961-2002. Each simulation is derived from 100 30-year time series of weather at the WG location 4400355 for Control, Low, Medium and High emissions scenarios for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050s and 2080s time slices. The datasets include the relevant accompanying input WG data.
Publication date: 2015-06-01
The 8-parameter model is based on the Ph.D work of Alex Leathard (unpublished) at Newcastle University. The model was set up and calibrated with data at Colwick on Trent (station 28009) from the period 1961-2002 using daily observed gauge data from CEH. Structural uncertainty and model calibration was performed by simulating 10,000 parameterisations selected by Latin hypercube sampling. Performance was evaluated using a 4-metric ranking comprising: the log transform flows of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, and absolute difference between observed and simulated from the Q90, Q95, and Q99 percentile flows. This was done primarily to ensure good performance at low flows. Goodness-of-fit was also assessed at various periods of the historical record, including the drought of 1975-1976. The Model was run with outputs from the UKCP09 Weather Generator, by inputting 30-year time series for: 3 emsissions scenarios; time slices of Control, 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050s, 2080s; 100 samples of each combination.