Future Flows Climate (FF-HadRM3-PPE) is an 11-member ensemble climate projection for Great Britain at a 1-km resolution spanning from 1950 to 2098. It was specifically developed for hydrological application and contain daily time series of Available Precipitation, which is the precipiated water available to hydrological processes after delays due to snow and ice storage are accounted for; and monthly reference Potential Evapotranspiration calculated using the FAO56 method. Future Flows Climate is derived from the Hadley Centre's Regional climate projection ensemble HadRM3-PPE based on 11 different variants of the regional climate model run under the SRES A1B emission scenario. HadRM3-PPE is underpinning the UKCP09 products. Bias correction and spatial downscaling were applied to the total precpitation and air temperature variables before Future Flows Climate APr and PE were generated. The development of Future Flows Climate was made during the partnership project 'Future Flows and Groundwater Levels' funded by the Environment Agency for England and Wales, Defra, UK Water Research Industry, NERC (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and British Geological Survey) and Wallingford HydroSolutions.
Publication date: 2012-04-01
A modified version of the 11-member HadRM3-PPE ensemble projection assuming SRES-A1B emissions scenario developed for hydrological application in March 2012. It cover land areas of Great Britain at a 1-km resolution and contains 11 sets of 1951-2098 equally likely time series for two data types daily Available Precipitation (incorporating delays due to water storage as snow and ice) and monthly Potential Evapotranspiritation time series. Future Flows Climate used a monthly bias-correction and downscaling procedure based on the Gamma distribution (precipitation) and linear model (temperature). Potential Evapotranspiration is calculated using the FAO56 formulation with monthly bias-corrected downscaled temperature and HadRM3-PPE original time series for the other variables. As Future Flows Climate datasets are derived from climate model outputs they do not replicate the historical weather but are possible realisations of the climate. Despite the use of bias-correction and downscaling procedures Future Flows Climate might still contain some differences with observed climate and cannot be compared directly with gauged values. SC090016/PN2, SC090016/PN3 SC090016/PN5 project technical notes provide details on the methods used and results.