Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora pinifolia infection of Caledonian Pinewood Inventory fragments in Scotland

This dataset maps the potential vulnerability to Phytophthora pinifolia infection for 82 core fragments of the Caledonian Pinewood Inventory (CPI) in Scotland. Fragment risk scores integrate climate suitability for pathogen growth, proximity to other pine fragments and inspected premises and recent planting under forestry grant schemes. Data and models used to assess risks are variable in their time frames, but are broadly representative of the period from 2013 to 2023. The risk maps for Caledonian Pine assess the vulnerability of CPI fragments, if P. pinifolia were to arrive, and the most probable areas of introduction and establishment. P. pinifolia has not been detected in the UK but is on the UK Plant Health Risk Register. All known host species are within the genus Pinus, either recorded as naturally occurring disease affecting the shoots and needles of Pinus radiata, or established through pathogenicity trials on other species within the genus, albeit with varying levels of susceptibility. The only known source region for the pathogen is Chile. P. pinifolia has been ranked 8th among Phytophthora species mostly likely to arrive among the 109 Phytophthora species assessed, with this higher risk predominantly driven by the model component describing climatic similarity between forest, agricultural and urban habitats in Chile and the UK. A Rapid Pest Risk Analysis for P. pinifolia considered it unlikely to enter the UK due to restrictions on import of living pine species from non-EU countries, though transport may still be possible with other, unknown, hosts.