Griffin, A.; Kay, A.; Bell, V.; Stewart, E.J.; Sayer, P.; Carr, S.

Peak flow and probability of exceedance data for Grid-to-Grid modelled widespread flooding events across mainland GB from 1980-2010 and 2050-2080

This dataset is a set of 24 gridded netcdf files, each including data describing a total of 14,400 widespread flooding events across mainland GB, with event selection based on a peaks-over-threshold approach. The data describes peak river flow in m3/s and the associated annual probability of exceedance for each 1km grid-square on the GB river network. The data is extracted from daily time series data from the Grid-to-Grid model, using UKCP18 12km regional projections from 12 members of a perturbed parameter ensemble, over the periods Dec 1980 – Nov 2010 and Dec 2050 – Nov 2080 (based on 360-day years). Multi-day events were summarised by taking cell-wise flow maxima.

This data was generated for use in analysis of risk through catastrophe modelling using the Future Flows Explorer. It was generated and interpreted by UKCEH, working with Sayers & Partners Consultancy, as part of the AquaCAT project, part of the UK Climate Resilience Programme.

Publication date: 2022-06-27

Get the data

This dataset is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence

This data is available as Comma-separated values (CSV) or Shapefile

You must cite: Griffin, A.; Kay, A.; Bell, V.; Stewart, E.J.; Sayer, P.; Carr, S. (2022). Peak flow and probability of exceedance data for Grid-to-Grid modelled widespread flooding events across mainland GB from 1980-2010 and 2050-2080. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/26ce15dd-f994-40e0-8a09-5f257cc1f2ab

 

Where/When

Study area
Temporal extent
1980-12-01    to    2080-11-30

Provenance & quality

Hydrological flow records were generated using Grid-to-Grid and UKCP18 12km regional projections. Widespread events were selected for which daily flow exceeded a 99.5% percentile simultaneously over at least 20km^2. Multi-day events (consecutive days for which the above conditions were met) are summarised by pointwise maxima of flow.

Probabilities of exceedance are computed pointwise using a mixed distribution, with an empirical distribution used for non-extreme values (below the 99.5% percentile) and a Generalised Pareto distribution used above, both fitted to the full time series of daily flow.

Correspondence/contact details

Dr Adam Griffin
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford
Wallingford
Oxfordshire
OX10 8BB
UNITED KINGDOM
 enquiries@ceh.ac.uk

Authors

Griffin, A.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Kay, A.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Bell, V.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Stewart, E.J.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Sayer, P.
Sayers and Partners Consultancy
Carr, S.
Sayers and Partners Consultancy

Other contacts

Custodian
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
 info@eidc.ac.uk
Publisher
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
 info@eidc.ac.uk
Rights Holder
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
 enquiries@ceh.ac.uk
Rights Holder
Sayers and Partners Consultancy
 Paul.sayers@sayersandpartners.co.uk

Additional metadata

Topic categories
Environment
Keywords
Environmental risk Flood frequency,  Hydrology
INSPIRE Theme
Environmental Monitoring Facilities
Spatial representation types
Tabular (text)
Vector
Spatial reference system
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid
Last updated
11 July 2022 08:32