This dataset is under embargo and will be made available by 30 October 2026 at the latest Find out more »
Redhead, J.W. et al see all authors
Mapped land use, land cover and environmental impacts of multiple UK-extent pathways towards Net Zero by 2050
https://doi.org/10.5285/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d
Cite this dataset as:
Redhead, J.W.; Thomson, A.; Clilverd, H.; Goodwin, C.; Serra Gallego, J.; Upcott, E.V.; Young, H.; Beauchamp, K.; Ballinger, A.; Molteno, S.; Silvestri, A.; Malcolm, H. (2026). Mapped land use, land cover and environmental impacts of multiple UK-extent pathways towards Net Zero by 2050. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d
non-commercial use (see https://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/licences/lcm-raster)
Download/Access
This dataset is under embargo and will be made available by 30 October 2026 at the latest Find out more »
This dataset comprises spatially explicit, modelled outcomes of multiple alternative pathways towards the UK Government's legally binding target of achieving Net Zero in territorial emissions by 2050. These pathways relate specifically to changes in the UK's agriculture, land use and forestry sectors that might contribute towards this target. This dataset includes UK-extent maps of changes in land use, land cover and land management under each pathway, along with modelled spatial data on a range of indicators quantifying environmental impacts on greenhouse gas abatement, soils, water and biodiversity. All data are tiff format rasters at UK extent, mostly at 1 km resolution, and show outcomes for a nominal baseline of 2024 and 3 future time slices (2030, 2042 and 2050).
A variety of rule-based, process-based and statistical models were used to create these outputs. Each pathway represents a hypothetical but plausible trajectory of change for the agriculture, land use and forestry sectors, made up of multiple measures that contribute to emissions reductions and increased sequestration. The pathways are exploratory, using contrasting measures and levels of uptake. These modelled data are therefore not predictions, but instead aim to provide insight into what is plausible and probable, facilitate exploration of synergies and trade-offs between progress toward Net Zero and environmental impacts, and ultimately support decision making around viable routes for achieving policy objectives.
These data were created under the Land Climate Programme (LCP), a project jointly funded by DESNZ and DEFRA and delivered by a consortium including UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Eunomia Research and Consulting Ltd, Exeter University, the Met Office and Forest Research. The finer-resolution data were created with resources under the NERC-funded DRUID project.
A variety of rule-based, process-based and statistical models were used to create these outputs. Each pathway represents a hypothetical but plausible trajectory of change for the agriculture, land use and forestry sectors, made up of multiple measures that contribute to emissions reductions and increased sequestration. The pathways are exploratory, using contrasting measures and levels of uptake. These modelled data are therefore not predictions, but instead aim to provide insight into what is plausible and probable, facilitate exploration of synergies and trade-offs between progress toward Net Zero and environmental impacts, and ultimately support decision making around viable routes for achieving policy objectives.
These data were created under the Land Climate Programme (LCP), a project jointly funded by DESNZ and DEFRA and delivered by a consortium including UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), Eunomia Research and Consulting Ltd, Exeter University, the Met Office and Forest Research. The finer-resolution data were created with resources under the NERC-funded DRUID project.
Publication date: 2026-07-16
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Format
TIFF
Spatial information
Study area
Spatial representation type
Raster
Spatial reference system
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid
Spatial resolution
1000 metres
Temporal information
Temporal extent
2024-01-01 to 2050-12-31
Provenance & quality
The data were created by a variety of spatial modelling approaches.
To produce the Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) datasets, changes derived from the underlying narrative behind each pathway were spatially allocated, transforming a baseline map of land cover, crop or livestock distribution (baselines drawn from existing spatial datasets of surveys) into one showing a new map of the relevant LULC variable under each pathway and future time slice. The primary model used to perform this spatial allocation was the SAMSEn model developed by UKCEH, which relies on using a series of spatial attractors (which make a given change more likely in a particular location) and constraints (which prevent a given change from occurring in a particular location) to allocate change and simulate competition between land uses in a spatially plausible way. Environmental impact data were modelled using a variety of rule-based, process-based and statistical models, which were parameterised and run independently.
All data underwent a variety of internal QA processes, including automated checking that models were producing expected outputs (in terms of quantity of LULC change). Model outputs were reviewed by multiple members of the project team, checking visually and analytically to detect unexpected spatial patterns or values. These data have also undergone external review by the project funders. However, it is important to note that all these data represent simulations of hypothetical outcomes of possible pathways towards Net Zero at UK scale, and so are not indented to predict actual future changes nor to give a high level of accuracy or precision, especially in terms of individual cell values.
To produce the Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) datasets, changes derived from the underlying narrative behind each pathway were spatially allocated, transforming a baseline map of land cover, crop or livestock distribution (baselines drawn from existing spatial datasets of surveys) into one showing a new map of the relevant LULC variable under each pathway and future time slice. The primary model used to perform this spatial allocation was the SAMSEn model developed by UKCEH, which relies on using a series of spatial attractors (which make a given change more likely in a particular location) and constraints (which prevent a given change from occurring in a particular location) to allocate change and simulate competition between land uses in a spatially plausible way. Environmental impact data were modelled using a variety of rule-based, process-based and statistical models, which were parameterised and run independently.
All data underwent a variety of internal QA processes, including automated checking that models were producing expected outputs (in terms of quantity of LULC change). Model outputs were reviewed by multiple members of the project team, checking visually and analytically to detect unexpected spatial patterns or values. These data have also undergone external review by the project funders. However, it is important to note that all these data represent simulations of hypothetical outcomes of possible pathways towards Net Zero at UK scale, and so are not indented to predict actual future changes nor to give a high level of accuracy or precision, especially in terms of individual cell values.
Licensing and constraints
This dataset is under embargo and will be made available by 30 October 2026 at the latest Find out more »
non-commercial use (see https://eidc.ceh.ac.uk/licences/lcm-raster)
Cite this dataset as:
Redhead, J.W.; Thomson, A.; Clilverd, H.; Goodwin, C.; Serra Gallego, J.; Upcott, E.V.; Young, H.; Beauchamp, K.; Ballinger, A.; Molteno, S.; Silvestri, A.; Malcolm, H. (2026). Mapped land use, land cover and environmental impacts of multiple UK-extent pathways towards Net Zero by 2050. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/ca0346fc-e261-45bc-8ee4-f0df6c2ca25d
Correspondence/contact details
Authors
Serra Gallego, J.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Beauchamp, K.
Forest Research
Ballinger, A.
Eunomia Research and Consulting
Molteno, S.
Eunomia Research and Consulting
Other contacts
Publisher
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
info@eidc.ac.uk
Rights holder
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Custodian
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
info@eidc.ac.uk
Additional metadata
Keywords
Funding
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs
Natural Environment Research Council
Natural Environment Research Council