Hydrological projections for the UK, based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data, from the Enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) project
Cite this dataset as:
Hannaford, J.; Mackay, J.; Ascott, M.; Bell, V.; Chitson, T.; Cole, S.; Counsell, C.; Durant, M.; Facer-Childs, K.; Jackson, C.; Kay, A.; Lane, R.; Mansour, M.; Moore, R.J.; Parry, S.; Rudd, A.; Simpson, M.; Turner, S.; Wallbank, J.; Wells, S.; Wilcox, A. (2022). Hydrological projections for the UK, based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data, from the Enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) project. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9
Download/Access
PLEASE NOTE: By accessing or using this dataset, you agree to the terms of the relevant licence agreement(s). You will ensure that this dataset is cited in any publication that describes research in which the data have been used.
This dataset is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence 
Bulk download options
You can use WGET to download data. For example
wget --user=YOUR_USERNAME --password=YOUR_PASSWORD --auth-no-challenge https://catalogue.ceh.ac.uk/datastore/eidchub/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9
https://doi.org/10.5285/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9
Enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) is an 12-member ensemble projection of river flow, groundwater level, and groundwater recharge time series for 200 catchments, 54 boreholes and 558 groundwater bodies in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It is derived from the UKCP18 dataset, specifically the 'Regional' 12km projections, to which a bias correction is applied. River flows, groundwater level and groundwater recharge data are at a daily time step. To be consistent with the driving meteorological dataset, eFLaG data use a simplified 360-day year, consisting of twelve 30-day months. eFLaG data span from 1981 to 2080.
The development of eFLaG was made during the partnership project funded by the Met Office-led component of the Strategic Priorities Fund Climate Resilience programme under contract P107493 (CR19_4 UK Climate Resilience).
Publication date: 2022-01-26
View numbers valid from 01 June 2023 Download numbers valid from 20 June 2024 (information prior to this was not collected)
Formats
Comma-separated values (CSV), Shapefile
Spatial information
Study area
Spatial representation types
Tabular (text)
Vector
Vector
Spatial reference system
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid
Temporal information
Temporal extent
1981-01-01 to 2080-12-31
Provenance & quality
Meteorological data is from the UKCP18 dataset, specifically the ‘Regional’ 12km projections. Observed river flow and groundwater level data are provided by the NRFA (National River Flow Archive) and NGLA (National Groundwater Level Archive) respectively. Meteorological and observed data is then modelled through a number of systems including AquiMod, ZOODRM, G2G, PDM, GR4J.
Licensing and constraints
This dataset is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence
Cite this dataset as:
Hannaford, J.; Mackay, J.; Ascott, M.; Bell, V.; Chitson, T.; Cole, S.; Counsell, C.; Durant, M.; Facer-Childs, K.; Jackson, C.; Kay, A.; Lane, R.; Mansour, M.; Moore, R.J.; Parry, S.; Rudd, A.; Simpson, M.; Turner, S.; Wallbank, J.; Wells, S.; Wilcox, A. (2022). Hydrological projections for the UK, based on UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) data, from the Enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) project. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/1bb90673-ad37-4679-90b9-0126109639a9
Related
Citations
Kay, A.L., Bell, V.A., Davies, H.N., Lane, R.A. & Rudd, A.C. (2023) The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates. Earth System Science Data 15, 2533–2546. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2533-2023
Tanguy, M., Chevuturi, A., Marchant, B.P., Mackay, J.D., Parry, S. & Hannaford, J. (2023) How will climate change affect the spatial coherence of streamflow and groundwater droughts in Great Britain? Environmental Research Letters 18, 064048. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd655
Aitken, G., Beevers, L., Parry, S., & Facer-Childs, K. (2023). Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections. In Climatic Change (Vol. 176, Issue 11). Springer Science and Business Media LLC. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
Hannaford, J., Mackay, J.D., Ascott, M., Bell, V.A., Chitson, T., Cole, S., Counsell, C., Durant, M., Jackson, C. R., Kay, A.L., Lane, R.A., Mansour, M., Moore, R., Parry, S., Rudd, A.C., Simpson, M., Facer-Childs, K., Turner, S., Wallbank, J. R., … Wilcox, A. (2023). The enhanced future Flows and Groundwater dataset: development and evaluation of nationally consistent hydrological projections based on UKCP18. In Earth System Science Data (Vol. 15, Issue 6, pp. 2391–2415). Copernicus GmbH. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2391-2023
Durant, M., Hall, E., Morris, A., Walburn, G., Wilcox, A., & Counsell, C. (2024). The future is transient: Barriers and opportunities for improved UK water resource climate change assessments using the enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) climate service products. In Climate Resilience and Sustainability (Vol. 3, Issue 2). Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.69
Parry, S., Mackay, J. D., Chitson, T., Hannaford, J., Magee, E., Tanguy, M., Bell, V.A., Facer-Childs, K., Kay, A., Lane, R., Moore, R.J., Turner, S., & Wallbank, J. (2024). Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels. In Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (Vol. 28, Issue 3, pp. 417–440). Copernicus GmbH. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024
UK Health Security Agency (2023). Climate change: health effects in the UK. The UK Government. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/climate-change-health-effects-in-the-uk
Environment Agency (2023). Environment Agency natural capital condition indicator mapping. . https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/environment-agency-natural-capital-condition-indicator-mapping
Correspondence/contact details
Stephen Turner
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford
Wallingford
Oxfordshire
OX10 8BB
UNITED KINGDOM
enquiries@ceh.ac.uk
Wallingford
Oxfordshire
OX10 8BB
UNITED KINGDOM
Authors
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5256-3310
Chitson, T.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Counsell, C.
HR Wallingford
Parry, S.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Wells, S.
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Wilcox, A.
HR Wallingford
Other contacts
Rights holders
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, British Geological Survey
Custodian
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
info@eidc.ac.uk
Publisher
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
info@eidc.ac.uk